Crypto news flash, analysis by Joao Wedson pointed out that the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF usually shows weakness before the S&P 500 starts to weaken. He shared this pattern and mentioned historical data from its annual performance. When the year-over-year change exceeds a certain threshold, it often signals a major top in the S&P 500 or the ensuing market correction. This is closely related to the behavior of emerging markets, which are typically more sensitive to changes in global liquidity, the US dollar, interest rates, capital flows, and risk appetite. The current year-over-year reading is again above the historical threshold. While this does not guarantee that the S&P 500 has reached its final top, it is a warning that should not be ignored. Emerging markets may once again be sending early signals that risk appetite is approaching an important turning point.

MSCI-1.39%
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GateUser-14cb5f72
· 46m ago
Risk appetite turning point... it feels like the market is propping itself up, waiting for a black swan event.
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OrderCancellerAfterTheRain
· 7h ago
Another top alert—this is the 😂 time this year. But this time it has historical data to back it up, so let’s mark it first.
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HashbrownHero
· 7h ago
If USD liquidity tightens, ETH will die first—that chain of logic makes sense to me, but the question is: when will the Fed actually turn hawkish?
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ForkMoment
· 7h ago
The leading indicator for emerging market ETFs is quite interesting—liquidity-sensitive assets do reflect changes faster.
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GateUser-6bc62511
· 8h ago
What’s the exact threshold? The article didn’t provide a number, so I want to verify it myself.
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BetaTestHuman
· 8h ago
Wedson’s data goes back to which year? I want to see the actual lag time after the threshold was triggered back in 2008 and 2020.
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