#美国核心CPI未达预期 U.S. inflation cools more than expected.

Tonight, a CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the U.S. CPI for June rose 3.5% year over year and fell 0.4% month over month, both below market expectations. As a result, traders cut back bets on the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes this month. All three major U.S. stock index futures jumped across the board, and the precious metals market also rose collectively. Spot gold surged by more than 2%, while spot silver’s intraday gain at one point widened to 3%.
After the CPI data release, the market’s next focus is Kevin Wosh’s trip to Capitol Hill. According to the schedule, Wosh will deliver his first testimony on FOMC monetary policy before the U.S. Congress at 22:00 Beijing time on July 14. The market will closely watch his views on inflation, the labor market, and economic growth—any “hawkish” signals could roil global financial markets.
On the evening of July 14 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, showing that U.S. CPI for June rose 3.5% year over year, below the expected 3.8%; the prior value was 4.2%. U.S. CPI for June fell 0.4% month over month, versus expectations for a decline of 0.1%; the prior value had increased by 0.5%.
The report showed that U.S. core CPI for June (excluding food and energy) was flat month over month, below the expected 0.2%, compared with the prior reading of 0.2%.
After the release of June’s inflation data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures jumped sharply, and traders significantly trimmed their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes.
After the data release, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose across the board. As of 20:40, Nasdaq 100 index futures were up 1.38%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.5%, and Dow futures flipped from down to up.
The precious metals market also strengthened across the board: spot gold rose by more than 2%, and spot silver’s intraday gain expanded to 3%.
The key driver behind the decline in U.S. inflation in June came from weaker energy prices. Data showed that as the most intense phase of the energy shock from the Middle East conflict gradually passed, gasoline prices fell significantly in June, directly pulling the overall CPI month over month into negative territory. This marks the first time since 2020 that the U.S. CPI recorded a month-on-month decline, indicating that the inflation pressure driven by energy in the prior period has begun to ease.
Douglas Porter, chief economist at TD Bank, said that in June, gasoline prices plunged 10% month over month, the fourth-largest single-month decline in nearly a decade. Just this factor alone could drag the overall CPI down by 0.4 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs said it expects the month-over-month increase in core CPI in the coming months to hover around 0.2%. This reflects ongoing cooling of inflation in the housing category, as well as easing upward pressure from rising airline fuel prices and the impact of the World Cup on the travel services category.
It is worth noting that the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. that led to the steep fall in U.S. gasoline prices in June was already nearing collapse last week. Since then, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have continued to escalate, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has stalled again, sharply pushing up international oil prices. As of 20:30 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures were up 2.53% to $80.118 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures were up 3.95% to $86.594 per barrel.
This suggests that the U.S. July CPI data (to be released in August) will very likely differ significantly from tonight’s figures.
Another risk point worth focusing on is the price of electronic products. In the latter part of June, Apple announced it would raise the prices of the MacBook and iPad, reflecting upward pricing pressure on the broader hardware industry brought about by the boom in AI infrastructure.
In the Fed’s June meeting minutes, it already listed the AI investment boom as one of the main factors driving higher inflation. In its latest report, Goldman Sachs economist Megan Peters calculated that the triple effect—AI-driven memory price surges, software price increases, and higher electricity prices—has already lifted the year-over-year core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. by more than 0.2 percentage points, and that this contribution is expected to rise to 0.5 percentage points by year-end.
After the June CPI data was released, Wosh will deliver his first testimony before the U.S. Congress on FOMC monetary policy at 22:00 Beijing time on July 14. This will be his first appearance at a congressional hearing since taking office as Fed chair.
Wall Street is highly focused on his views on inflation, the labor market, and economic growth—plus the interplay between these factors and interest rates.
Analysts point out that Wosh currently does not have the deep stature of figures like Volcker or Greenspan. Faced with pressure from Democrats, if he continues to use evasive responses, he may encounter strong opposition in Congress.
Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, said the fundamental purpose of lawmakers summoning Wosh is to ask him to explain his plan for bringing inflation down to the 2% target; it will be difficult for him to sidestep these forward-looking questions by simply saying the relevant risks will be “not discussed for now.”
Andrew Sacher, Bloomberg’s chief U.S. economist, said that to significantly increase the probability of rate hikes, it would require both an “above-consensus hot CPI” and clearly hawkish remarks from Wosh, and the likelihood of both occurring at the same time is low.
On the eve of Wosh’s trip to Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that monetary policy is currently at a “crossroads.” If subsequent data show that inflation remains significantly above the 2% target level, the Fed could raise rates in the near term.
He emphasized that the Fed’s next move will depend entirely on this week’s inflation data.
Boris Schlossberg, macro strategist at BK Asset Management, said the Fed would need to see core CPI month-over-month gains of less than 0.2% for 2–3 consecutive months before it could potentially abandon its plan for rate hikes this year.
Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said that if inflation continues to improve over the next two months, subsequent meetings of the monetary policy committee may keep interest rates unchanged.