THESE ALTCOINS HAVE FAILED ❌

88 out of 100 tokens listed since January 2025 are underwater.
> $MEGA
> $BERA
> $PLUME
> $XAN
These are just a few hyped launches that dipped massively later.
It isn't just structural or the bear market.
This is a combination of both.
> Delphi Digital tracked 652 tokens listed on major exchanges since January 2025. Only 12% are still above their debut price. The median return is –82%. More than half lost over 80% of their value.
> Memento Research came at it from a different angle: 118 major TGEs, measured on opening FDV. 100 of them, 84.7%, trade below where they launched. Median: –71%.
Equal-weighted, the 2025 cohort is down ~33%. FDV-weighted, it's down 61.5%.
In simple words -> The bigger the launch, the worse the outcome.
The wreckage, measured against opening FDV:
Syndicate –93.6%
Animecoin –93.6%
Berachain –93.2% ($4.46B to $305M)
Anoma –90.2%
Plasma –89.9% ($12.97B to $1.31B)
Camp Network –89.1%
Plume –87.8%
MegaEth -74%
And these were launches that were all over CT in the preceding weeks. I personally read all about them before their launch.
There are also a few exceptions to this pattern though.
The winners were few and narrow. Aster went out at $0.08 in September and hit $1.97 within days. edgeX did +114%.
Perp DEXes averaged +213% as a category, but the median was still negative. One monster winner does not make a sector. Averages are lying to you. (That's an argument to give if anyone just follows numbers blindly)
→ Do the broken ones still have hope?
Depends which kind of broken.
Some have a supply problem. Plasma's TVL climbed from under $1B to $1.76B in thirty days, making it the 8th largest chain by TVL, while the token sat 90% below its opening valuation.
A 2.5B token unlock, 25% of supply, begins this month and runs monthly through 2028. That's a mechanical overhang, not a verdict on the product. It can resolve. It also might not.
Some have a business problem. Berachain's TVL fell from a $3.35B peak to roughly $393M, an 88% collapse that tracked the token down. When TVL and price fall together, there's no divergence to trade. The market didn't misprice it. The market repriced it.
And some have a trust problem, which is the hardest to come back from. One Berachain investor bought $25M of BERA at $3, with a contractual right to a full refund within a year of TGE. You can rebuild TVL.
You cannot quickly rebuild the belief that there weren't two sets of books and that the Berrabadies.... okay let's not get there.
The takeaway isn't "tokens are dead." It's that the TGE stopped being an entry point and became an exit. Price discovery now happens before the listing. Retail is buying the top by design.
Read the unlock schedule before you read the pitch deck.
TGEs are very complicated and they make even more risky in the bad markets. The good markets might even push bad projects in a hype, bad markets are ruthless.