7.14 accurately hit the rebound node, but why is no one paying attention? On 7.15, once the earnings milestone passed, the main track direction became completely clear

Maybe everyone’s been losing money lately. I’ve been predicting accurately in a row, but the inflow/traffic keeps going down. …hahaha. When people are losing money and feel awful, they don’t want to do anything—normal、[TaoGuba]

Today everyone has the same feeling. You all know the big “chicken leg” tech stocks rebounded, but the process was a bit torturous. So can big tech still sustain itself? That’s the key question today. Of course, you can still make money without finding the answer. Reading my recap first has one benefit: you won’t lose money. First of all, what I need to do is: as long as I say it’s hard to rise after it drops.

The rebound today was already expected yesterday. I’m also a unity of knowledge and action—I bought Huatian Technology right at the open. The strength is on those “big chicken leg” types that fell too much—so I didn’t have any issue. Unity of knowledge and action. Because mid-leadership type stocks can’t be bought with limit-up board tactics (打板), so my lowest-point is the opening price. Because if it’s a rebound, it’s reflected at the open, including the strength of the rebound.

This recap is simpler. I won’t add the reading pressure from my past articles. Hahahahaha 、

Now let’s go straight into the recap:

Index: not too important—the key is volume/energy. Today’s volume/energy: early on, even though big tech rebounded, it was actually nearly a shrink of about 300 billion (300B). I can only say everyone doesn’t believe this rise. Everyone thinks it’s just a pause in the downtrend. The good news is that by the afternoon, those big “chicken legs” that closed back up (回封) and those that added buy orders (加封单) brought back about 200B (200B). Not too bad. If after an early rebound it slowly shrank volume and closed with about 100B, and today started by shrinking about 380B and then “pulled back” into it, closing with volume shrinking only 30k—these two ways play out differently in terms of mindset.
Of course recovery needs a process. Tomorrow, as long as there’s an incremental volume of around 20k, it can solve the panic from the sharp selloff. It will move through a platform. When sentiment returns gradually. So tomorrow, it’s all about the volume/energy—whether it can continue. Don’t get shaken out easily. This is how the trend has been done recently.

Key point/nodes: Yesterday I analyzed it—today is the rebound node. How to look at the open tells you that the rebound is also discussed. If you didn’t follow my friends’ analysis, you can go back and look at the previous recap post. Then today we discuss the second node: after the close on 7/15, it’s the last time window for mandatory disclosure of Shenzhen’s mid-year reports expectations. Is this important? Of course it is. This wave is basically trading earnings, right? Every day the one-line limit-ups mostly point to these—and that doesn’t already explain the issue? You can’t say for sure about sustainability, but since funds still chase on earnings, they’re still抢. Yesterday the one-word (一字) limit-ups were two without earnings. Today they didn’t get picked up, and one even dropped further. The most ridiculous one is Hefei Chengjian: a sentiment stock—it opened at a one-word down limit (跌停开盘). Doesn’t that show how important earnings are?

Once the mandatory disclosure period passes, it means there’s no more panic driven by missing expectations. Then it also means that the front-running stocks being “pressed down” won’t be done first. Rotation sector moves also won’t be afraid of getting led into a trap—rotation ends directly. These past days, haven’t sectors been like that? Hainan Haiyao, Everton, commercial aerospace—aren’t they?
So this is an important node. It may mark the start of a focused “sector rotation” on the trading theme. The reason those that fell too much are rebounding back is only because of their sentiment value.

First step: don’t you need to find some emotionally valuable stocks among robots, commercial aerospace, biotech/medicine, and domestic (国产) themes?

Big tech:
Everyone saw Shengyi Technology this morning—doesn’t it look strong? But it’s not that meaningful. Because the “oversold rebound” can’t bring out sentiment. To put it this way: tech this morning can only be treated as an oversold rebound. It can’t confirm that an uptrend has started.
In contrast, when there’s an opportunity for tech, it’s about a long stretch of active trading that’s not disturbed—this is why tech has felt so uncomfortable in the morning. Medicine stocks rise without being interfered with.
This afternoon, Dongshan Precision hitting the board (上板) is different. This isn’t a “strong limit-up” created by an oversold rebound. In other words, it’s a trend-type strong board created by an oversold trend pulling. The first intuitive feeling we get is that volume is gradually picking up—right? So is Dongshan Precision’s sentiment value bigger than Shengyi Technology’s?
That would mean: oversold moves can’t bring out sentiment—can we understand it this way?
At the mid-day session we still saw medicine remain continuously active. So I thought what I said in the early follow-up: everyone doesn’t recognize oversold tech. They don’t recognize the rally in CPO + PCB, and they only view it as an oversold rebound. So I still wasn’t optimistic. I’ve always said: big tech needs sentiment to return through volume. Today in the end it still shrank volume—proving sentiment is still not enough.

The real value is chips—namely Huatian Technology. That’s the tech-cycle rebound pullback. When they pull back with rising volume, the sentiment comes along. And it presents as a volume-expansion rebound pullback. But today we see strong oversold stocks—yet they didn’t bring strong sentiment back to chips. That means they still don’t dare to easily judge that the main selloff has ended.
But still—how about the open buy point? If you bought at the opening, wouldn’t you still be able to carry profits into tomorrow? Right? Today I’ve been watching whether anyone “corners” and buys ahead of the time when Hefei Chengjian’s down-limit drops. This stock is the real sentiment breakout point. Remember: last time it brought back about 30k (380B). This kind of sentiment value has an expiration period—not more than three days.

Where is the direction? Today’s node I mentioned is the most important node recently. That’s the lack of earnings interference. Direction: chips. Medicine. Commercial aerospace. Robots—these can all be looked at. Do you understand? What we’re entering now is a “trust/don’t trust” phase. Because previously you saw how weak they were. Next, they may rise until you believe.
This is from a game-theory expectation perspective—some trading-screen observations.

Hengshang Energy Conservation: Whatever it wants to do is fine. It doesn’t bring consecutive-board (连板) and it doesn’t bring storage (存储) rotation return. Whether it’s there or not makes no difference. What this stock fears is that it gets hit with multiple down-limit (跌停). That would affect sentiment.

In the chaotic cycle, some stocks on the ChiNext provided buy/sell “signals.” For example Wanbang Biopharma, Tongyuan Petroleum—these are hard earnings that keep pulling up while people hesitate in tech.

Summary: Basically it’s the return of the rally to the chip industry chain. This rebound has continuity. Only it can bring sentiment. Oversold also has buy points. Like the number of down-limit at the open that I gave—getting on the first wave isn’t a problem. If it doesn’t hit limit-up, then just exit.

Conditions for consecutive boards: whether volume can exceed 300 billion (30k亿). If it’s between 200 billion and 300 billion (20k亿 to 30k亿), then it’s okay. There isn’t an obvious breakout line yet for the trend.
Given the current volatility, it’s hard. Even the index is fluctuating a bit. Only medicine can do something.
The index needs to stabilize.

A glimmer of hope appears. I said earlier: big tech shouldn’t swing dramatically—just slowly show the sprouts of consecutive boards. You can try/experiment.
Today we saw lithium batteries—many rebound gains also appeared. That’s oversold.

There isn’t much to say today. It also roughly explained everything and gave the conditions.

If you like my recap, please follow, like, repost, give oil, and donate. If you have questions, leave a comment section message—I’ll explain patiently. Thank you.