Ethereum faces decisive $1,850 test with $2,200 rally on the table

Ethereum ( $ETH ) has remained below $1,800 as traders await U.S. inflation data despite growing expectations of a breakout above $1,850.

The second-largest cryptocurrency traded around $1,780 after briefly slipping toward $1,770 following the latest geopolitical flare-up in the Middle East. Oil prices jumped after the weekend strikes, reviving concerns that inflation could remain elevated ahead of the June CPI release and Paul Warsh’s expected congressional testimony.

Ethereum needs a confirmed breakout above $1,850 to unlock higher targets

The daily chart shows Ethereum carving out what resembles a double-bottom formation after rebounding from June lows. Price now sits directly beneath horizontal resistance near $1,846, which coincides with the neckline of the pattern.

A successful breakout projects a measured move toward approximately $2,198, while the Aroon indicator favors buyers, with the bullish line holding above 90%. Chaikin Money Flow has also moved back into positive territory, suggesting capital has gradually returned after weeks of distribution.

Shorter-term momentum remains constructive but lacks confirmation. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum continues to trade above the Supertrend support near $1,756, preserving the recent sequence of higher lows.

At the same time, the MACD histogram has weakened, and the MACD line has slipped beneath its signal line, showing that upside momentum has slowed as price approaches resistance rather than expanded into a fresh impulse.

Macro risks could quickly reverse Ethereum’s recovery

Even with the improving chart structure, macro conditions continue to dictate short-term direction. Ethereum has struggled to sustain rallies throughout 2026 as persistent spot ETF outflows, weaker network fee revenue following the Dencun upgrade, and competition from faster Layer-1 networks have weighed on investor demand.

Ethereum’s annual issuance has also returned to positive territory after reduced fee burns weakened the network’s deflationary narrative.

Failure to reclaim $1,800 before the CPI release would leave traders exposed to another round of volatility. A stronger-than-expected inflation print or renewed escalation in the Middle East could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, reducing appetite for crypto assets.

From a technical perspective, losing the $1,750-$1,756 support region would invalidate the current bullish setup and increase the probability of a retreat toward $1,680, with deeper demand waiting near the psychologically important $1,500 level.

Conversely, a confirmed break above $1,850 could trigger liquidations across leveraged short positions and shift attention toward the $1,900 area before the projected move toward $2,198 comes into focus.

#ETH