Let’s talk about the current thinking:

Even though tonight’s CPI came in an extreme surprise to the downside, the market action and overall expectations haven’t deviated too much.

As I mentioned earlier: there was some expectation that inflation would cool in June. Even if the data came in below expectations, the rebound wouldn’t be that exaggerated.

This time, if we had this kind of data in the past, it would have been an extremely bullish catalyst, but today the market reaction is fairly average.

Moreover, inflation pressure is still very high. On top of that, geopolitical risks have warmed up again this month, and uncertainty around the energy supply chain has resurfaced. In other words, it’s unrealistic for the inflation data to be released later to continue easing—there’s even a possibility it could heat up again.

So the odds of a reversal still seem quite low. The more likely scenario is that the good news is already “used up.” What to do next is to wait for this wave of bullish sentiment to finish its release, then find a price level to short. $BTC