The market board has reached this point, and the sentiment seems to be easing a bit—especially since the afternoon indices directly surged up. There hasn’t been a large-scale pullback trap, which is quite unexpected. Let’s use the old pattern to review and see if we’ve missed any details! [Taoguba]

Yesterday the market was a stock disaster; retail investors’ sentiment naturally resists it. Whether it was tech or “the masses,” it was the same. A few tech heavyweight names are relatively better at resisting declines—for example, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xin Yi Sheng, and other varieties!

In the latter half of the tech rally, the market must go from false to true on the order book. In Korea, the main driver was memory chips, and the tech bubble was severe. Here, our quant factor’s first task every pre-market is identifying how Korea is doing. During the period right around our opening, the Korean index happened to be in the red. Tech here tried to go upward冲, but after 10:30, it became obvious that everything had gone down. This tech rally was basically all in the same camp—just that our side’s trading methods are even more “nauseating.”

A few ideas to be clear on before the bell:
1: Fundamentally, this adjustment is still because stocks had run up too high. The pullback next will definitely be hardcore tech, and that defines the rebound structure.

2: From robots to lithium mines to commercial aerospace to special gases yesterday—everything here unexpectedly tells you that quant trading is now at an extreme. Avoid doing those theme stocks that are batch-driven up. Since yesterday’s commercial aerospace, basically it won’t be the case that you get the chance again the next day. It will be a low-open that presses straight into the daily limit down. As long as you dare to do it, you won’t make money. Today’s Kaimet Gas is the same. So look more at those quants that haven’t been involved much yet but still have workable patterns, or those where quant exposure isn’t very heavy. And this quant issue likely can’t be solved in the short term—it can only be avoided!

3: Yesterday was the second day of an adjustment. If it goes down and sells off hard today, you should look for opportunities—not absolute, but generally lock the timing points. And this opportunity is about whether it leans toward logic or toward oversold rebound.

At 9:25, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Lihai Chuangxin both hit limit-up on a single price. Here, the stimulus was 东方算芯’s news. Zhangjiang Hi-Tech didn’t hold for long. At the open, it went straight north in a single direction. This fully shows that, for quant trading right now, either you can’t get in, or once you get in, you’re basically trapped. What to watch next is that quant trading only helps to boost and kill sentiment—it can’t decide the inflection point of sentiment. For example, Eibo Long once after posting earnings kept losing day after day, but today Hudu Dian Company posted earnings and it hit the daily limit up. That’s sentiment’s inflection point. So going forward, whether you can see earnings beating expectations: sentiment comes first, everything else second!

For Dandong Seed, Jiangsu Suppo, Jinmei Technology, Shimao Energy, Haimai Technology, Chunzong Technology, Baolong Technology, and others—all hit limit-up on their interim report earnings. Here, ignore it.

At 9:32, Taishan Petroleum rushed to a limit-up. Tongyuan Petroleum and Shandong Molong have been strong since July 8. The start point for oil also matched the timing of US-Iran. So claims like “US-Iran happened Monday and that caused the selloff” can’t really stand. But the environment this time is comparable to US-Iran from before.

At the same time, Baibai Group sprinted to a limit-up. Those were quant-driven message plays right away. Pre-market consumer stocks also had plenty of news.

At 9:35, Foster sprinted to a limit-up. In the photovoltaic film direction. Photovoltaics has already fallen like a dog. Foster’s Q1 report is declining, but its Q2 report is increasing—so it’s essentially a news board. News like this only has continuity if “the wind is here.” After that, it will have continuation.

At 9:40, Rentong Tian and Yang? sprinted to a limit-up. Every time Rentong Tian appears, it basically maximizes mockery toward the board. Not just pharmaceutical commerce—innovative drugs and healthcare services today are also extremely strong. For later in the sector, pay attention to whether, when there’s disagreement at high levels, low-level names will still rise. For example, today Jinyu Medicine’s earnings were released but it couldn’t seal the limit-up. Changchun High-Tech and Tongce Medical are also bottoming-type names. Later, if high-level stocks either stay sideways or sell off while high-level doesn’t, and low-level either doesn’t sell off or only sells a little, that’s a continuation signal for the sector. At least into the close, pharma had a bit of “baiting” behavior.

At 9:46, Dayou Energy rushed to a limit-up. In other words, around the opening window, low-level names with earnings losses did not fall; they actually went up. But at this time, tech was also surging upward—showing the phenomenon of “safe-haven” products and tech on the same stage.

At 9:52, Shengyi Technology and Guanghe Technology both rushed to limit-up—also the earnings plays in PCB. At this moment, Hudian Shares was also surging. For CPO, it was Xin Yi Sheng leading. Looking at the overall results, today PCB weights and individual limit-up names in subdivisions were a bit more than the rest. On this, there are only two that can post earnings. If going from false to true, funds would be more inclined toward PCB. Today’s Jin’an was one that lifted up in the afternoon. If you didn’t have the afternoon surge, it should have been doomed to die. That includes Honghe Technology. Last night, Honghe Technology posted earnings—no one knows whether the profit of these 300 to 2.88B can support a market cap of 180 billion. Here, you also have a quant factor problem: no matter whether you have earnings or not, where the “wind” is right now is the issue in the current board! If the wind isn’t here, even if you earn more than these tech companies, no one recognizes it. Lithium mines are the best example!

At 10:06, Yao Yigou rushed to limit-up. Yuexin Health followed and also hit limit-up. The “Korean” index started entering a pullback state. Funds began to seek safety, and what they searched for were low-level names and directions with pre-increase earnings. In this time window, healthcare was basically a “bottoming and rebound” structure.

At this moment, I took a look at China Satellite and it was immediately pressed down dead. Kaimet Gas was also pressed to the floor limit-up/down. Basically, the results of quant-driven rallies were all very惨.

At 11:25, Oriental Fortune suddenly took a dive. This has a bit of “baiting for selling” meaning. At this position, there’s absolutely no need for it. This is a big-main force move.

Then in the afternoon at open, the ChiNext index was lifted by one straight line.

I specially checked various sectors:
AI chips—Cambricon

Semiconductor equipment—Beifang Huachuang

CPO—Zhongji Xuchuang

PCB—Shenghong Technology

New energy—Solar Power

Etc. I won’t list every sub-sector. Basically, at the same time, all of them were straight-line surges. Who has the capability for that? And the feature is: just that one moment—you either already have it, or even chasing it, you can’t chase in time. The path is similar to the earlier commercial aerospace. In other words, it’s unified quant-driven lifting on the basis of “three ice.” The rebound on July 9 was also an oversold rebound.

At 13:07, Yunxing Technology rushed to limit-up. Last night it released an announcement to raise rent by 2.879 billion yuan—this is an announcement board.

At 13:22, Zhongman Petroleum rushed to limit-up. At this moment, pharma, oil & gas, and tech all appeared on the board—so obviously one side must be wrong. Including later all the way to Tongyuan Petroleum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium all hitting limit-up.

At 14:54, funds started to pull up the closing. Sentiment warmed up a bit. Rongtai Co., Ltd. pulled a limit-up at the end of the day, in the robotics direction. Today, it was allowed to pull up into the close. But pulling that much into the close is hard to say—allowing it into the close is based on the premise that confidence in the market has been long missing, not in a high-level disagreement state. Only if there are retail investors in pharma who dare to bottom-fish.

After the close, autonomous driving got cleared—from profit to loss. Robotics was still held. That also went from profit to loss. But even if it returned to profit later, there’s no big problem. I still strongly believe “the bell is answered by the one who tied it.” Robotics today also showed signs of bottoming out. After doing sector rotation and covering—T-trade today—my cost is relatively low, and it’s still in profit. The other positions started gradually being recovered. Thankfully, today I didn’t create new “historical discipline” breaches. But yesterday was the biggest losing day for me this year. I missed the bottom in tech but didn’t miss it in robotics—this is the problem of inflection-point formation. I think in the stock market, losses for someone like me aren’t that big of a deal, especially under the circumstance of yesterday’s hundreds of stocks hitting the limit down. I don’t think I can dodge every wave of selloff—that’s what saints do. But for people like me, what matters most is market confidence and logic. Over these days, like certain listed company’s board secretary, and many big shots coming out to talk about the board issue—it’s basically without logic; it’s completely quant乱串, moving chaotically. Even today’s board action: the “korean V” came back, and then “we V” came back as well. What does that even说明? Are you expecting these people to shut off quant trading? If a trick like that was used, they would definitely keep using it later because it works!

The standard I gave yesterday is: whoever starts the negative feedback takes responsibility. Here, excluding tech direction, it’s mainly robotics and lithium mines. In tech, it’s mainly upstream sub-sectors like optical fibers and copper foil. Since we’re mainly looking at institutions’ attitudes, here I mainly use the “main force” as an example:

For lithium mines: today Tianqi Lithium ended with a “bottoming and rebound.” Rongjie Co., Ltd. also had two consecutive days of bottoming and rebound. In the short term, there’s a technical correction; sentiment has eased a bit. This doesn’t mean I’m bullish on lithium mines. When you read my review, pay attention to this: the technical correction is the weakest trajectory. Tonight, Tianqi Lithium’s earnings preannouncement for the first half indicates 2.6 to 4.2 billion yuan. By rights, even a single-price limit-up isn’t too much. But earlier I said: all performance feedback depends on whether you’re on the wind. This market isn’t a place where it explains logic to you!

Robotics: for green harmonic, the close was also above the rising trend line—so it’s at least preserving a final bit of face. Within the sector, internal differentiation is quite serious. Besides the technical need for a rebound, later it relies entirely on event stimulation.

Then for tech: in CPO, it’s Zhongji Xuchuang and Xin Yi Sheng. In the afternoon, the two used a dozen minutes to pull to their intraday highs. After that, for the rest of the time, they kept oscillating there. During this period, CATL’s intraday ticks kept rising. The securities sector moved precisely at around 2 o’clock. From this, two conclusions: first, the index needs to maintain here—this can be seen as a sign of confidence. Next, the index should be a volatile走势. But for tech, funds didn’t have strong offensive intent. Otherwise, they would have pushed even higher to release some chips and then pull back. But that wasn’t what happened. Today’s structure is very similar to last Thursday. The US stock market tonight should be up again. So if you take advantage of the timing to push up a bit and then withdraw, even if tomorrow pulls back, it’s still uncertain whether Thursday will open low. Or switch perspectives: with the current trading volume of 27,000 billion, is it possible to produce a “three consecutive rising days” move in the weights? What you’re thinking here is a probability question.

For PCB: Shenzhen Dian and Hudian shares released earnings together, but Hudian hit limit-up. That includes Dongshan Precision and Shengyi Technology hitting limit-up too. So Shenzhen Dian must have something wrong!

Because overall, it’s following the overseas market to get pulled back. When the overseas market lags, the whole A market immediately lags too. So AI hardware has some passive factor intraday. Or you can judge whether the trend after the “korean board” will produce a larger negative feedback, and then combine it with our side’s volume. Actually, the korean board today is also passive—it’s been restricting shorting by programmatic trading. Aside from these, today the active things on the board are metals and pharma. In industrial metals, the whole sector is also an oversold rebound type, including the earnings expectations announced tonight.

Because recently, two consecutive rallies have been oversold rebounds. The market sentiment reached extremes, and then it rebounded. Last time, the next day was a yin engulfing yang. So today, you can’t judge whether this level has stopped falling just by this single bearish candle alone. You can’t draw that conclusion. This position is at most a turning point, but not a confirmation point. Confirmation requires cooperation from the next day. Don’t end up with the downside breaking again. Also, high-level names themselves are oversold rebound. Like optical fiber and copper foil: those are already with trapped holders on top. Tomorrow there’s still quant trading and intraday chasing—so you need a very strong attitude to hold it up and absorb it!

Overall: the index still has momentum to push up tomorrow. But if the push up is led by tech, pay attention to whether the market volume can同步 amplify. There will be enough time for retail investors to think. Because if it were to go straight up, Xin Yi Sheng could have surged again today. The basic evidence would show even in the opening auction. For example, Jin’an Guojiu followed in the afternoon, Hudian shares that re-locked (Shengyi Technology that was the first to hit limit-up), passive Shenzhen Dian and a series of names. If those passive ones open low and get killed directly, the strength decides the main force’s attitude. If the passive ones can still open high or even open red, and the front row doesn’t drag behind, then for tech, after a split among strong players, you can look for opportunity. If it’s a theme-led market, check whether it’s an oversold-correction direction. For example, new energy and robotics need correction. Once time drags too long, it becomes a “known script.” The market now is inclined to “responding reactively”—if it can’t beat quant trading, it uses quant trading to play the game.

Next, clarify two points:
1: Changxin Technology is about to apply for subscription listing. The market space has already been “killed out.” For the earnings preannouncement, basically the good students have already submitted their exams by July 15. After it becomes clear/obvious, where will the market go—continue tech, or兑现 the positive news? The “benefit of the rain and dew” goes to all. But one thing to pay attention to is: don’t forget how the market fell earlier. Still use tech subdivisions as examples: is the main force willing to spend more money to help tech resolve their losses and break even, or are they willing to start a new stove and lift low-level names instead?

2: Does the market still have logic now? I think there isn’t. It’s just that earlier the main force popularized so many “price-increase logic” stories, causing us to keep talking about logic in our heads. Today I also mentioned this in the comments, and I also suffered because of it—I thought the main force has a cost, that was my mistake. Some people thought performance is the main force’s logic, so they suffered losses in lithium mines. But in the end, the wind blows where it blows—until the quant ecosystem is changed. But I think technology is progress; it’s unlikely to change, especially when it has already produced effects. When everyone’s money disappears, there will always be a winner.

From July until now, ten days have passed. In these ten days, many people probably wiped out their annual profits. Especially the past two days—whether tech or others, it was basically a round of heavy beatings. But I think it’s an inevitable event. Recently, quite a few people have cancelled their accounts. I think cancelling is enlightenment. Originally, I don’t recommend most people come into this market. You need mindset and position management. Technical analysis is still the most basic: holding on to prosperity also requires endurance through loneliness. It’s too much of a test of human nature. But the market existing means it’s reasonable. Every problem has a solution. When quant high-frequency hits and sweeps the market with capital and speed advantages, what we can do is reduce trading frequency. The biggest feeling during this period is to follow the quant tide as much as possible. Even if a new theme appears, it’s the same. Like earlier robots, commercial aerospace, and special gases—next day they were all negative feedback. If another “climax” appears and the next day doesn’t produce negative feedback, then that’s the main force’s attitude!

Also, “mom’s indicator” is actually quite useful!

**Here too, I’d like to thank every brother who clicked like, gave rewards, and kept the push going. You let me stay calm while pursuing my goals, helped me take one more step forward, and also let me feel the value of sharing knowledge. I will keep sharing more valuable content. Thank you for your support! And I also wish all the brothers doing the one-click three in a row this year’s accounts a long run of wins—thank the brothers who keep going and pushing while persevering! @BOGUAN @半途开悟 @老泪纵横 @Tytm25 @快去玩连连看 @巴菲特必擒妖笔记 @小宝1105 @猛人阿良 @Qik1ng @飞龙载体买ru即涨
**

**Thank you to the classmates who gave rewards; thank you for your recognition (Top #1 boss: @韩跑跑哦 )@Jackkkkkk @沙漠骆驼 @A羽扇纶巾 @Rondo888 @Helen99 @小宝1105 @常拉拉 @不会游泳的股票 @十盎司 @寻觅心猎手 @子夜的月光 @菜鸟也能飞 @白苍 @乔一乔 @我家狗叫国宝 @丐中之丐 @左手化羽 @lanceama @話少强牛 @努逗斯 @哈哈哈哈红红火火 @山外一片云 @小平007 @ICE5201314 @power321 @咕噜橙胡胡胡 @深夜远行客 @慧盈七号 @三水告 @zysfff
**

If you think this article is helpful to you, please support with rewards, encouragement, likes, and the one-click three in a row in the comments. Thank you! Again, I emphasize that the review is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice! Note: the comment section environment needs to be maintained together. No profanity in my “friend circle,” no fans fighting, etc. Disagreements are allowed—only with disagreements will we progress!

SHANDONG MOLONG15.35%

PINE CARE11.32%

SHENGHONG TECH3.04%

XAL0.71%

XCU1.39%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

Reward
like
Comment
Repost
Share

Comment

Add a comment

No comments

Trending Topics
View More
#
PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription
1.18M Popularity
#
GateJuneTransparencyReport
231.87K Popularity
#
USCoreCPIMissesExpectations
769.56K Popularity
#
PredictWorldCup🇫🇷vs🇪🇸
186.41K Popularity
#
GateSpotGrowthRankedFirstGlobally
237.64K Popularity

Pinned

Sitemap

July 14, 2026, Tuesday — Review: Before the main force takes action, quantify with the flow.

Trending Topics

PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription

GateJuneTransparencyReport

USCoreCPIMissesExpectations

PredictWorldCup🇫🇷vs🇪🇸

GateSpotGrowthRankedFirstGlobally

Pinned