July 15 Outlook: Repairing the annual line is the starting point! To continue the strong momentum, we need multi-dimensional resonance from external catalysts!

Good evening, everyone. Today’s broad-based rally is something many people didn’t expect this morning. The index even dipped below the 200-day moving average at one point, but in the afternoon, the A-shares market opened and delivered a classic bottoming deep-V reversal. Market sentiment completed an extreme intraday repair. However, from multiple dimensions—volume, structure, and trend—today’s rise cannot be confirmed as a full trend reversal. At present, the market is in a critical window where the US Federal Reserve’s CPI data hits and domestic and overseas sentiment resonate together. Whether the subsequent price action can continue depends on structural confirmation over the next 2–3 trading days, rather than a single-day rebound establishing a trend. We need a complete, in-depth breakdown from the perspective of the external environment, the big-market rhythm, and the structure of sectors and individual stocks.[Tao股吧]

1. Intraday deep-V reversal, with the external environment driving the next move!

1. First is the external market environment. This A-shares deep-V rebound has a foundation of global capital sentiment resonance. Today, the Korean stock market also simultaneously exited a deep-V move in the afternoon, and risk assets across Asia-Pacific collectively repaired, providing sentiment support for A-shares’ rebound. The evening’s core heavyweight variables focus on the US June CPI data and US stock performance—this is the key that determines global liquidity expectations and market risk appetite. Right now, the market is in an emotion-driven game phase before the data is released. The CPI data directly affects the Fed’s subsequent rate-hike/cut timing, and also determines where global tech track capital will flow next. The valuation pricing of overseas compute power and technology growth assets is fully anchored to the outcome of this inflation data. The direction of overseas longs and shorts will directly influence the strength of A-shares at tomorrow’s open and the intensity of the repair—this is the core prerequisite for tomorrow’s trading action.

2. Second is the overall rhythm of A-shares. Today’s index rebound is a rebound from oversold conditions, not a trend reversal. The whole day saw the index bottom and then recover; the ChiNext (创业板) led the rally with an advance of more than 3%, more than 4,200 stocks rose, and the market clearly showed broad-based gains. From a technical structure perspective: earlier the market consolidated and declined, with sentiment continuously weak. This downswing produced a standard ABC correction structure. Today’s deep-V is an oversold technical rebound at the end of wave C. To keep repairing upward gaps of suppression here, we need volume to expand to around 3 trillion. A single-day deep-V can only end short-term panic sentiment; it cannot reverse the medium-term sideways-to-choppy pattern. There is clear overhead gap pressure. For the index to truly stabilize the downtrend and start sustained repair, it must follow with volume expansion to surge into and through the gap. At the same time, hold today’s deep-V low and follow a structure of “pullback without breaking, sideways buildup, and gradual advances.” In simple terms, today is only an early form of a “stop-the-bleeding” signal, not a reversal signal. Whether the next 2–3 trading days’ volume and whether the low holds are the core criteria for judging whether the market has bottomed.

3. Finally is the sector and individual-stock structure, showing extreme rotation and structural fragmentation. The most core feature of today’s tape: overseas compute power rebounded from oversold, while domestic compute power simultaneously lagged with additional catch-up decline. In the overseas compute-power industry chain—PCB, MLCC, CPO, etc.—after a long unilateral downtrend, the 5-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages have all been in a bearish alignment, and the market has been consistently producing a complete ABC down structure. Today, it delivered an oversold repair with a batch of limit-up rallies, but overall the sector rebounded on reduced volume; most stocks’ moving averages did not turn up, and there was no consolidation-and-stabilization structure. The majority are oversold rebounds after a down continuation, not a trend reversal. I did a recap of 80 limit-up stocks today. Especially for PCB and MLCC: the ones that can continue to show stabilization signals and upside expectations are “Dongshan Precision, Feilong Shares, and Huyi Electric (沪电股份)”—these three. Among them, Dongshan Precision is the representative example: it was the only one in the sector with an early stabilization pattern, completing the first stop-the-bleeding and accumulation. The other limit-up names are mostly emotion-driven impulses with no solid bottom structure support. In contrast, the previously strong domestic compute power and domestic semiconductor sectors collectively fell again today, which fits the normal “high-low rotation” and capital risk-avoidance reallocation washing. Aside from that, themes like biomedicine and robots only saw intermittent rotation with no sustained capital backing, so the continuation of the move is relatively weak. Overall: the market’s main line has temporarily switched to oversold overseas compute power; domestic compute power is entering short-term consolidation/rest. Theme rotation is accelerating, and there is no continuous, all-leading mainline. It needs to continue repairing for another 2–3 days.

** (Capital today is collectively flowing in.)**

2. July 15 outlook and themes:

1. PCB and MLCC show inertial spikes higher. There is money continuing to pick up on dips, but meanwhile trapped shares’ synchronized selling pressure also comes out. This creates a rise-then-fall after a spike. After that, if there’s again capital that takes over, and then it continuously completes this kind of 2–3-day move, it can be considered a true bottoming/stabilization, and only then can you pay attention again after multiple rounds of shock-and-washout.

2. For Changxin Memory semiconductor and Huawei compute power 950: tomorrow is their window period. Semiconductor equipment and materials will also likely see repair expectations tomorrow.

3. Securities: I rarely talk about securities on normal days, but now securities has already corrected to the point of completion. This afternoon was a turning point, especially with the overlap of Changxin Memory. Tomorrow, securities is expected to stabilize the index and also to bet on Changxin Memory. For instance, Huaan Securities (华安证券) today has initiated a selloff stop; China Merchants Securities (招商证券) is also expected to show a strong bottom “intra-line pattern” tomorrow.

4. Biomedicine here (TCM and innovative drugs): the sector has shown some sustained opportunities. For example, Harbin Pharmaceutical (哈药), Minerva (美诺华), Huzhen (众生), Kelun (科伦), and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical (双鹭药业) are still worth observing—the trend they are in after the pullback is still good.

5. Limit-up chain (连板) expectations: it’s not good to chase limit-ups. Clearly, both the number of consecutive boards and the height still fall short a bit—just watch.

1 into 2: Dongshan Precision, Feilong Shares
2 into 3: Tongxin Electronics (信通电子)
3 into 4: Harbin Pharmaceutical (哈药股份)

July 15 core expectations and trading standards. Tomorrow’s market action depends on verification by external signals:

1. If tonight’s CPI data is mild, US stocks strengthen, and the Korean stock market continues to open strong and keep rising, A-shares will see a high-volume repair rally.

2. Tomorrow’s core requirement is high-volume upside thrust to hit the overhead gap. Even if it spikes and then pulls back, it still counts as a benign move. As long as over the following few days the pullbacks do not break below today’s deep-V low, the market can form a sideways consolidation center and thoroughly end this downswing trend, then enter a pattern of choppy upside.

The trading approach is to confirm and observe first—don’t chase, don’t blindly judge reversal. Wait for multiple signals to converge: sector volume breakout, structural stabilization, and moving averages turning up. Then follow the momentum for higher certainty.

These are my personal thoughts today. There is no stock recommendation. The stock market has risks; invest cautiously!

Key battle strategies to reference: limit-up boards breaking then repacking (断板反包), super high volume bearish and super high volume bullish days, and box-pattern breakouts, etc.:
CPO and PCB cycle moves, helping retail investors build professional trading thinking (April 25 article)
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Practicing by following the trend from mid-to-late May—don’t panic at pullbacks, build energy and go higher! (May 16 article)
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Deep analysis of core-stock summaries and trend swing strategies in PCB cycle trading! (May 23 article)
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After major divergence at high levels, May 28’s broken-board rebound and trend swing trades combine well! (May 27 article)
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Hot-theme bull-stock washout pattern: deep analysis of broken-board rebound and box-pattern breakout! (June 6 shared article）
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