0714 recap: today’s rebound is basically “Don’t go, my fellow countryman”—continue to watch pharma anti-dragon; oil is the backup option.

Today is another rebound—it looks like all sunshine, but in reality there’s hidden intent to kill. First of all, today isn’t a deep V; second, there are no panic-sell orders coming out. So this rebound is basically the “old neighbors, don’t go” trick—after a few days, it will continue to sell off, with hundreds of stocks hitting the daily limit down. So for this rebound today, don’t expect too much. It’s just another small scheme by the main force: “old neighbors, don’t go.”

Today’s chart action is extremely awkward. You say it’s rebounding, but it doesn’t have the strength of last Thursday’s rebound. And under these circumstances, even after such a big rebound last Thursday, the second day still didn’t respond at all. So this kind of rebound today can last at most three days—meaning tomorrow may still have another day; if things go well, the day after tomorrow could still rebound a bit. After three days, it may keep falling again, with more “daily limit down” stocks. Be mentally prepared early—don’t hope for too much.

For anyone holding shares: tomorrow and the day after, take advantage of the rebound to handle them quickly—don’t let yourself fantasize. Right now, the overall market is like a person recovering from a serious illness—you can’t expect him to instantly restore his vitality by shaking his head upward. That’s impossible. The best path here is consolidation: trade sideways, consolidate and shake for a period—about a week, 10 days, even two weeks—then slowly drift upward. That’s the best. If you think it will jump straight into a deep V, forget it.

I’ll keep sticking to my view: treat Big Technology as if it has topped—don’t hold any fantasies. In a few days, Changxin will list; we’ll observe further how Big Technology moves afterward, then make more specific judgments. For now, just treat it as the top.

As for tech being treated as a top, what I’m going to do next is to focus on healthcare/biopharma and pharma ETFs. The ETF percentage “T” opportunities—especially the smaller T spread—make doing T very difficult. If you can’t do T properly, don’t do T. Just hold on to it. Doing T without having three points isn’t even meaningful, and I’m not interested in doing T.

Also, I’m planning to open a new base, which is oil. We’ve traded the oil theme before. Later, when the war happened, it surged a big wave. By normal logic, after a big surge you shouldn’t trade that kind of stock. But with today’s international situation still unstable, oil is extremely active. Not doing it feels a bit of a pity—like an opportunity has come again. The bottom is starting to see volume pick up. There are three specific examples: Tongyuan, Mulong, and a 30cm one—there’s one called Keli. The third one, let’s see how it performs.

So how do we find opportunities in it? My prediction is this: wait for an intraday big bearish candle to appear, and make sure bottom chips aren’t lost. For example, if tomorrow intraday suddenly drops 10%, then I’ll consider entering. If the bottom chips are lost, no matter how good the volume-price action is, I won’t do it. For this type of stock, you can only buy on weakness (low entry), not chase higher. Chasing higher makes it very easy to get trapped.

In this kind of market, keep a good mindset, and manage your position size. Don’t panic during big drops, and don’t pop champagne during big gains. Keep a calm heart and face this rapidly changing, complex market calmly. Even though Big Technology shows signs of having topped, there are still many catch-up opportunities from low positions. It will keep rotating and putting on performances. As long as you catch the rhythm, you can still eat a lot, a lot of mantous.

I just took a quick look—today the “stock god” is out again, popping champagne everywhere. But how many days can you pop champagne? Will you still dare to pop it tomorrow? In a few days, you’ll be crying again, and you’ll have to go back into intensive care. So we must not be careless. Stay composed.

I know many people don’t like my way of thinking. They say I’m “empty posting,” “empty posting,” bearish on the market. It’s not that I’m bearish—just that I also like the bulls. But you have to respect the market, respect reality. However reality turns out, you have to follow that. You can’t indulge in wishful thinking.

That’s it for today’s post-mortem. If it matches your taste, hit like. If it doesn’t, just swipe away. If there’s anything you want to exchange and discuss, we’ll see you in the comments.