Rebound Leader (Dongshan Precision)

Current positions: Yakke Technology, Huatian Technology, Torrens, (Communication ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, Chip ETF) [Taoqiu Ba]

Yakke Technology: Didn’t move.

Huatian Technology: It spiked higher in the early session, and I sold half.

Torrens: I added 2 buys in the deep water; the core position didn’t move—so painful.

Tech ETFs: I didn’t add the Communication ETF. It surged today. I added Equipment and Chips, but they didn’t rise today. Is this that precise? (The core positions didn’t move either.)

What I already acted on and threw away:

China Aerospace Development: At the open it moved down, and I cut immediately.

Yesterday’s post-rotation recap:

Yesterday’s data hit an all-time low; today there was a rebound, about the same as last Wednesday, with Thursday rebounding. (Overall expectations were right, but this time I didn’t do a blanket add.)
Yesterday was basically doing the same expectations as last Wednesday: buy as it fell, and buy during the sharp plunge—after an emergency drop. The expectations weren’t wrong, but the rebound was mainly in optical modules and PCB; semiconductors could only make money by bottom-fishing.

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Data overview:

Sector rotation: Yesterday I just said communication and chips weren’t on the list; today both are on the list. By the way, this medical sector (innovative drugs) is getting smoother and smoother.

Average position and P/L: Position size is normal, but the P/L is a bit low (maybe many people like me are in semiconductors).

There is 1 stock that needs to be singled out: Dongshan Precision (in the recent period, every rebound it has been the vanguard). Tomorrow’s up or down is likely to affect the optical module trend; it’s better to watch it together with Jizhi Xuchuang, Midtechn (Molex) and then look at it together.

Good news:

1. The Koreans are already propping up the market. Because if it keeps falling, they’re going to trigger financial system risk. (At this level, if it drops another 10–15 points, a lot of leverage will blow up.)
2. Since yesterday, our GJD has also started propping up the market. In the past few days, ETF inflows have been in the hundreds of billions.

Bad news:
The leverage that the Koreans added earlier will bring relatively heavy selling pressure tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. I don’t know whether their GJD can absorb it.

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Tomorrow’s expectations:

I just went to check the indices and sectors. Most of them aren’t above the 5-day moving average. Many rebounds that hit the 5-day moving average just stop right there. Some didn’t even touch the 5-day moving average. That’s a weak performance. Even today’s rebound strength isn’t as strong as last Thursday. But today feels a bit different from last Thursday. I don’t know how to describe it—it just feels really good.

Tomorrow, you need to pay attention to the index. If it’s truly strong, tomorrow should open slightly higher, then rally high and pull back, and then keep doing a V rebound—so the intraday chart looks like an N. Also, tomorrow the index must stand above the 5-day moving average and must V back up; it can’t be like last Friday, where it rallied high and then pulled back. Because that will affect what happens next. Assuming tomorrow keeps rallying high and pulling back, then later it will still need to come down to probe the lows.

One stock is relatively important: Dongshan Precision. In the recent period, every time there’s a leading vanguard, it’s it. Tomorrow it must go up—preferably a big jump. If it turns into another big bearish candle like last Friday, then the day after tomorrow likely won’t be good either.

Lastly, tomorrow should still rebound for another 1–2 hours. Keep an eye on the index—for example, whether when the rebound reaches the 5-day or 10-day moving average, it can break through and hold above it. If it can’t break through and hold, you still need to reduce positions.

Tomorrow’s plan: None (I have no positions left.)

Position management:

Yakke Technology: If the close doesn’t break below the 20-day moving average, hold; if it breaks, exit.
Huatian Technology: Only consider exiting if it surges and doesn’t hit the limit-up; otherwise, hold.
Torrens: It has already dropped too much—I can’t bring myself to cut. Unless it surges, I’ll only consider exiting or reducing (for example, reduce if it rises by more than 7%).
Communication ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, Chip ETF: Only consider reducing if it surges; otherwise, hold.

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Basic teaching (will be continuously updated below):

💡 Pressure level + support level — usually suitable for T-trading articles (the T-technique section).

💡 Find missing follow-ups + arbitrage — this is just the simplest version; later I’ll add a bit more.

💡 Buying points in the hype cycle for a single theme.

💡 How to play a rotation market.

💡 What data to look at in the daily opening call auction.

💡 Select stocks based on chart patterns.

💡 Pattern imitation.

💡 Find rules through data analysis (timing trades).

💡 Key turning points in the sentiment cycle and how to grasp trend style.

💡 Hot themes: convertible bonds + ETF arbitrage.

💡 Consecutive-limit push + sentiment prediction (using “inner cultivation” methods + data quantification to time trades).

💡 Make next-day expectations based on replay data (institutional trend).

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