Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge, and gold should have been the go-to safe haven—yet yesterday, gold prices fell below 4,000, leaving countless long-position holders doubting everything. Just today, gold has violently rebounded from 3,985 to 4,033, with the CPI data set to be released today. Is this wave “gold’s bull market turning back,” or a luring trap during a downtrend?

On one side:
The strong support zone at 3,980–4,000 was defended three times, triggering a technical rebound
Geopolitical conflict escalates—safe-haven demand is only a matter of time
Central banks continue buying gold; the long-term de-dollarization narrative remains unchanged
RSI bounces after being oversold, with momentum for a short-term push upward

On the other side:
Oil’s surge could rekindle inflation, delaying expectations for rate cuts
The US Dollar Index is rising, weighing on gold
The 200-day moving average is above 4,300, and the medium-term trend remains bearish
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, gold could fall below 3,980 and accelerate downward

What’s the cost of holding onto this kind of “gold”?
At the 4,000 level, are you bold enough to bottom-fish?

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