US June CPI unexpectedly cools down; Bitcoin breaks through $63,500 as pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise rates eases

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released June CPI: up 3.5% year over year, sharply below the market expectation of 3.8%. Core CPI month over month also came in at the rare level of 0.0%, signaling weaker inflation and reducing the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise rates soon.
(Background: Don’t be fooled by negative CPI growth! June inflation will be proven tonight—rate-hike bets for July surged to more than 40%)
(Additional context: Bitcoin retested $61.8k, $367 million liquidations in 24h! Fear grade 22—extreme fear, with U.S. stock chips dragging)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released June CPI data on the night of the 14th. The year-over-year rate fell to 3.5%, not only below the market expectation of 3.8%, but also significantly down from May’s prior reading of 4.2%. Core CPI month-over-month was directly flat at 0.0%, far lower than both expectations and the prior figure of 0.2%.

Before the CPI data was released, Bitcoin had once again climbed due to the renewed escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and tensions around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz were tight. It briefly pulled back to around $62k, and market sentiment was filled with panic. After the news was released, Bitcoin rose and broke through $63,500, lifting the entire cryptocurrency market.

CPI cools comprehensively; core inflation returns to zero in an unprecedented way

• CPI year-over-year: 3.5% (forecast 3.8%, prior 4.2%)
• CPI month-over-month: -0.4% (forecast -0.1%, prior +0.5%)
• Core CPI year-over-year: 2.6% (forecast 2.8%, prior 2.9%)
• Core CPI month-over-month: 0.0% (forecast and prior both 0.2%)

Core CPI month-over-month coming in at a rare flat zero suggests that this round of cooling inflation is not only due to energy price pullbacks; after excluding food and energy, potential price pressures also eased at the same time. This signal is highly significant for the Federal Reserve. Since 2026, the market has repeatedly worried that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates because inflation stays high. After this data was released, traders quickly cut back their bets on a rate hike this month.

The response in traditional markets was similarly straightforward. The U.S. dollar index fell by about 30 points, dropping to 100.69; Nasdaq 100 index futures jumped 1.4%; in the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.604%, and the 2-year yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.18%.