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Just now on Predict, the probability for the item “July Fed decision?” being “no change” suddenly jumped, rising from 63 all the way to 91.
I looked into the news—turns out the June CPI inflation data was just released. Overall CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, much better than expected, and inflation has clearly cooled.
The rate-hike probability on this was originally as high as 30%, but it suddenly dropped to 10%, so I guess I made a little profit too @predictdotfun