Wu learned that, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 63.1%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes totaling 25 basis points is 36.9%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 28.3%, while the probabilities of cumulative rate hikes totaling 25 and 50 basis points are 51.4% and 20.4%, respectively.

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CatPawTapToConfirm
· 5h ago
CME’s odds are just a reference—once September comes, one sentence from Powell can change everything; don’t be stubborn like someone trying to cross a river by measuring the marks on the boat.
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TokenomicsTailor
· 6h ago
28.3% unchanged through September—this probability is pretty low. Does that mean there’s a consensus that at least one more increase will happen within the year?
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DewdropSapling
· 10h ago
FedWatch data updates fairly quickly, but traders care more about the dot plot and the wording from the press conference.
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SlippageSiren
· 10h ago
September’s 51.4% expectation for a 25 basis point move is quite interesting—it feels like Wall Street is pricing it in ahead of time
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GateUser-9d67589f
· 10h ago
The Fed’s data is driving me crazy—63.1% stays unchanged, while the remaining 36.9% is betting on a rate hike. The market is really torn.
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ProtocolPaladin
· 10h ago
CME FedWatch is an old tool, but every time the data comes out, some people panic and others celebrate—just get used to it.
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