Don’t just stare at the CPI numbers! Tonight’s real script is a showdown between the “oil price illusion” and the “rate-hike nuclear bomb”

Brothers, at 8:30 tonight, the June CPI data will be released, and the whole market is waiting for that needle to land.

But if all you care about is, “When inflation falls, Bitcoin goes up,” then tonight you might get chopped up and harvested again and again. After being in this market for so long, my biggest takeaway is: price action always trades expectations, and the real killing move is hidden in the details behind the data.

1. There’s “illusion” in the data: the plunge in oil prices is masking the truth

Wall Street generally expects June’s headline CPI month-over-month to fall by 0.1%, and even the year-over-year figure to drop from 4.2% to 3.8%.

Sounds great, right? Sorry, but this is almost entirely thanks to oil prices—June gasoline prices have plunged by nearly 10%, and just that one item drags down the overall number by 0.4 percentage points.

The real devil is in core CPI. Excluding food and energy, core inflation is expected to only slip slightly from 2.9% to 2.8%, almost unchanged. Meanwhile, services inflation (rent, car repair, dining) still shows an annualized growth rate as high as 3.4%, far above the pre-pandemic average level of 2.6%.

If you go long just by looking at the headline numbers, you’re treating “oil price discount” as “inflation surrender”—and that’s dangerous.

2. The Fed’s ace card: the probability of rate hikes is closing in on 50%

Last night, Fed Governor Waller already leaked a hint ahead of time. He said plainly: if core inflation keeps running hot, the FOMC will have to consider rate hikes in the short term, and he warned against “repeating the debacle of 2021, when the response was too slow.”

Once that was said, Bitcoin immediately fell below 62k, and the probability of a July rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 50%.

So what does that mean? The Fed isn’t worried about oil prices anymore—it’s worried about inflation having seeped into a vicious cycle involving wages, rent, and service prices. Even AI data center construction demand is starting to be seen as fuel for the next round of inflation.

3. My judgment and strategy

I know some brothers will say, “Why worry? ETF money is still flowing in against the trend.” Sure—it's true that institutions are accumulating around 62k—but that doesn’t mean a pump will happen right away. The bigger possibility is that they’ll use the short-term volatility after the CPI release to complete the final shakeout.

What’s truly worth watching tonight isn’t how much the headline CPI fell, but three things: core CPI month-over-month, whether the housing sub-item loosens, and the hawkish/dovish statements from Fed officials after the data is released.

My conclusion is very clear: if core inflation stickiness doesn’t change, Bitcoin will likely have to absorb another “rate-hike expectations” shock in the short term, and the 60k–62k range will most likely be tested again and again. Longer term, I’m bullish—but don’t trip at the last step; don’t get knocked out right before dawn.

Retail traders look at numbers; institutions look at structure. Tonight, don’t bet on a single direction—wait until the sentiment has released, then move. It’s better than anything else.
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