The ultimate turning-point trigger for short-term market conditions is right here tonight!

Major U.S. June macro economic data will be released all at once, directly driving the short-term direction of both A-shares and the crypto market—the most critical macro variable of this week. All traders must closely monitor the screen and act cautiously.

1. 20:15 U.S. ADP jobs report (ADP “mini” payrolls)

As a leading indicator ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls, it directly reflects how hot or cold the U.S. employment market is.

Previous value: 21k jobs:

- Stronger-than-expected data: Employment resilience exceeds expectations; expectations for the Fed’s high interest rates remain elevated, weighing on stocks, BTC, and other risk assets.
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- Weaker-than-expected data: Employment continues to cool; rate-cut expectations are priced in early, benefiting global equities and the crypto market’s recovery.

2. 20:30 June CPI inflation data (highest weight, five-star level)

The true core of this market cycle, deciding the near-term direction for both bulls and bears.

1. Year-over-year CPI (not seasonally adjusted)
Previous value: 4.20%, with market expectations falling to 3.8%.
Sustained downward inflation is the most core basis for the Fed to begin a rate-cut cycle.
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2. Month-over-month CPI (seasonally adjusted)
Previous value: 0.50%, with expectations falling to -0.10%.
If the data confirms a deflation signal, risk assets will likely see a clear recovery rally.
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3. Core CPI (month-over-month)
Previous value: 0.20%, with expectations unchanged at 0.2%.
Core inflation is highly sticky—if it rises again, it will directly suppress the global market backdrop and delay the pace of rate cuts.

3. The logic linking the two major markets (A-shares + crypto)

1) CPI below expectations → inflation cools, rate cuts heat up, and the U.S. dollar weakens

A-shares policy confidence is further reinforced, and rebound momentum continues to strengthen;
The crypto market benefits from both rate cuts and sentiment—short-term pressured conditions may be set up to stabilize and repair.

2) CPI above expectations → inflation rebounds, rate cuts pushed back, and the U.S. dollar strengthens

Stronger expectations for the Fed to keep high interest rates will reinforce pressure on global risk assets;
A-shares, the tech sector, and the crypto market all weaken at the same time. Funds rush for safety and risk of a short-term pullback increases.

3) Neutral data release

If the market gets no clear directional signal, it continues to trade sideways and watch for guidance from the next policy and fundamentals.

4. Key reminders for trading execution tonight

In a data-dense window, market swings will be amplified in an instant:
A-shares will see sharper dispersion, while in crypto high-frequency “needles” and rapid up-and-down moves will become the norm.

Trading principles: reduce position size, de-leverage, cut losses strictly, and avoid heavy-position bets.
Before a high-certainty rally arrives, risk control always comes first for returns. $BTC #百万充值补贴