Tonight’s 20:30 CPI—most likely the most important macro data of the week—it will not only affect US stocks, but also directly influence BTC’s short-term trend. The whole market is waiting for one figure: the US June CPI.

At the moment, the market expects:

CPI YoY 4.2%—3.8%; core CPI 2.9%—about 2.8%

That means the market has already priced in: inflation continues to fall.
So what truly determines the market tonight isn’t whether the data is good,
but whether it comes in above expectations.

Three scenarios

First: Below expectations (most bullish)

For example:

The market expects 3.8%,

and the result comes out at 3.6% or 3.7%.

Funds will think:

Inflation is falling faster than expected.

Rate-cut expectations heat up.

BTC and US stocks both have a chance to push higher again.

Second: In line with expectations (limited impact)

For example:

The market expects 3.8%,

and it is also 3.8% when released.

In this case,

the market may only see short-term fluctuations,

because funds have already digested it.

What truly decides the direction,

is still the later PPI, Fed remarks, and ETF fund flows.

Third: Above expectations (bearish tilt)

If it’s released:

3.9%, 4.0% or higher.

The market’s first reaction will be:

Rate cuts may still have to wait.

The dollar and US Treasury yields could strengthen,

and BTC is prone to a quick pullback.#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购