Big data sets the short-term market direction! Tonight’s US CPI—mapping the long/short logic

Two key US economic releases tonight will directly affect A-shares and the crypto market. Be sure to focus on them:

1. 20:15 ADP small non-farm (ahead of the jobs report)

Previous value: 21 thousand

It reflects employment conditions:

- Strong data: hot jobs bolster expectations for higher-for-longer rates, bearish for stocks and risk assets like BTC;

- Weak data: cooling employment lifts rate-cut expectations, bullish for equities and the crypto market.

2. 20:30 June CPI (core headline data)

1. CPI YoY: previous 4.2%, forecast 3.8%. A decline in inflation is key for rate cuts;

2. CPI MoM: previous 0.5%, forecast -0.1%. Meeting the forecast will strongly boost risk assets;

3. Core CPI MoM: previous and forecast both 0.2%. If it rises, it could delay rate cuts and pressure the market.

3. Market moves tied to the data

1. CPI below forecast: rate-cut expectations strengthen, the US dollar falls, A-shares rebound, and BTC sees a relief/repair rally;

2. CPI above forecast: rate cuts pushed back, the US dollar strengthens, A-shares, tech sectors, and crypto all face pressure;

3. Neutral data: the market stays range-bound, with funds on the sidelines waiting for more policy signals.

4. Trading reminder

During the data release window, price swings are violent—A-share sector performance will diverge more, and the crypto market is prone to spike up and down sharply.

For trading, reduce position size in advance. During the data period, do not use high leverage for heavy positioning. Make sure to set stop-losses and avoid the risk of extreme volatility. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 $BTC ‌