Today's market snapshot

This liquidity situation is also really something—ETF net inflows only warmed things up for 2 days.. Then on Monday, another bucket of cold water got poured on.. Yesterday saw net outflows of 61.7k, and the dip went down to 61.7k, which also lines up exactly with the US session. The impact of that South Korea move yesterday ultimately still made its way into the crypto market..
However, from on-chain data it looks okay—the coins sold on-chain yesterday were basically from short-term traders. Yesterday 34k BTC were transferred into exchanges, and almost all of them were short-term traders holding for within 6 months. Long-term holders transferred in only 180 BTC, which is almost negligible. Miners transferring in also wasn’t much.
So, it doesn’t look like there’s been a structural breakdown yet.
Only one thing to pay attention to: in those 34k BTC transferred in yesterday, whale accounts with single transactions of 100 BTC or more made up more than 60%. In other words, the ones distributing were short-term big whales. That’s above the historical average, but at the moment it can’t lead to a solid conclusion. Just observation.
Also, the CPI data coming out in a bit—let’s see what kind of numbers it prints.
--------------
Orders (Figure 1)
That 1,300 BTC buy order from this 61k “giant whale” is still there. This buy order has been providing support from below consistently over the past couple of weeks.
This is also what I mentioned earlier: 61k~62k is an observation zone worth entering on a swing trade.
Yesterday at 61.8k it offered 3 entry chances. Bite the first 1,000 points, then keep some positions and continue to game for higher. If price drops again, it can keep waiting above 61k—today, there’s a liquidity range to watch after a three-tap dip toward the downside.
(Large limit orders on the lower side in the futures market are also a resonance point supporting a low-buy thesis.)
Right now the clearest resistance above is at 63.2k—there are 200+ spot sell orders here, stacking with a large amount of futures sell orders.
So for now, keep the price temporarily boxed in a small range of 61k~63.2k. Watch whether the US session can break out.
--------------
Color band model (Figure 2)
The color band model also shows that around 61.8k last night, the yellow band reappeared.
This is the first bullish “decent” buy-signal in a week.
(I keep the templates for these models in my Discord.)
------------
Liquidity (Figure 3)
Right now there’s still a wave of liquidity near 61k, resonating with the giant whale’s spot orders and that batch of futures orders. So if the ETF keeps putting sell pressure out today, 61k is still worth watching.
Liquidity above and hyperliquid stop-loss orders are around 63k. So if there’s an opportunity to get into a surge that pushes up above 63k with volume, that’s the place for today’s intraday short—combined with the futures sell orders around 63k.
Especially around when CPI is released—during the up-and-down probes, wait for the opportunity.
-------------
So today’s plan
Short-snipe around 63k.. A lot of spot and futures limit orders—see whether there’s a wave of volume expansion to form an absorption—reversal entry model.
The low-long plan remains unchanged: above 61k, and the SFP at the 61.7k prior low..