Wintermute: Bitcoin holds at $62.0k amid geopolitical shocks, turning to net inflows for the first time after eight weeks of ETF outflows

Deep Tide TechFlow message. On July 14, Wintermute published a market analysis stating that despite consecutive geopolitical events such as U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “indefinitely,” Bitcoin only dipped slightly and held the $62k range before rebounding to around $64k, showing that the market still has resilience amid ongoing shocks. Institutions believe this indicates that weaker holders in the market have largely exited, and Bitcoin is undergoing a “higher-lows” bottoming process.

On fund flows, after cumulative outflows of about $8 billion to $9 billion since May, Bitcoin- and Ethereum-related products recorded a total net inflow of about $282 million last week, ending eight consecutive weeks of outflows. However, Wintermute emphasized that this is still only “a turning point,” not “a trend.” Meanwhile, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, raising about $216 million to pay for preferred stock dividends, but the market reaction was muted, reflecting that concerns about passive sell orders that previously weighed on the market are easing.

On the macro front, oil prices rose toward $79 due to escalating Middle East tensions. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield once climbed to 4.57%, and market expectations for a rate hike in September rebounded from about 50% previously to 61%. Wintermute noted that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released this week will directly affect expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28–29; if inflation data is moderate, it may ease rate-hike bets, while if the data runs hot, it could further reinforce tightening expectations. Overall, while the current crypto market has temporarily halted its decline, it has not yet confirmed that a recovery phase has begun. Key points to watch next include CPI, whether ETFs continue to record net inflows, and how the 《CLARITY Act》 is progressing this month.