1. Trend judgment: Gold is still in a downtrend. The key watershed level is at 4,080. If the price does not break below 4,080, any rebound will be treated as a bull trap; if it effectively breaks below 4,080, the downtrend will continue, and the downside target can be seen near 3,950.

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2. Key levels overview:
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- Prior highs: 4,140, 4,120
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- Prior support/resistance: 4,070, 4,080
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- Recent low: 3,980
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- Rebound high: 4,035
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3. Data and event impact:
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- Tonight, focus on the U.S. June CPI data (prior value 4.2%, market expectation 3.8%). The effect on the gold price is as follows depending on the outcome:
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- Data ≤ 3.7%: bullish for gold price; the short term may spike higher
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- Data between 3.8%–4.2%: limited bearish impact; gold price first dips then rebounds
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- Data > 4.2%: major bearish for gold price; the downtrend will accelerate
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- The Fed Chair’s speech at 10:00 tonight will also bring volatility. Pay attention to the price’s actual reaction to the message, not just the headlines themselves.
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4. Trading logic: Use 4,080 as the core boundary between long and short. If it has not broken down, stay with a bearish bias; if it breaks down, follow through to look for further downside; if it holds above, the short-term trend may reverse. $XAUUSD ‌