The market is still moving within expectations. I speculated yesterday morning that it would likely see a decent pullback, and the chart has already confirmed that. Bitcoin saw a low pullback around 61,800 near 64,000➡️➡️➡️.

A key variable comes tonight—June CPI data is about to be released, and the suspense is particularly high.

First, some background: The 60-day ceasefire understanding memorandum between the U.S. and Iran was signed in June, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, and the market broadly expects inflation to cool significantly.

But recently, the Middle East situation has introduced new variables. The U.S. military has launched large-scale attacks on Iran for multiple consecutive days, and geopolitical risk has risen again. Uncertainty in the energy supply chain is back in focus.

This makes tonight’s CPI data even more complicated—after all, with a new event now in play, how will the market price this old data?

Let me share my view: In fact, my thinking still leans toward going short. The expectation of “cooling inflation” may have already been partially priced in early in the month. At that time, coupled with a good nonfarm payrolls report, the market ran a solid rebound. We also followed this logic at the start of the month, buying from a low around 58,000 and holding all the way to 63,000, capturing a round of upside.

So I think even if tonight’s data meets expectations or is better than expected and helps the crypto market, the rebound strength likely won’t be that dramatic, because the short-term positives have already played out.

But if the data comes in above expectations, which would be bearish for crypto, and layered with geopolitical risk, the market could very well see a heavy sell-off.

Whatever the outcome of the data tonight, I believe the medium-term result could be the same—that is, a decline.

The above are only my personal views. CPI data can swing a lot, so treat it rationally.#伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡