7.14 Market Analysis — Simplified

Trend direction: bearish

Technical analysis:

We’ve finally arrived at the day CPI is released. Maybe the result won’t form a clear major bearish surprise, but there’s no doubt that the inflation transmitted through this round of the US-Iran war will peak in June. Perhaps the final figure will just be 3.8, in line with expectations, and eased a bit from last month’s 4.2—but after all, it’s still 3.8! Whether you interpret it as a bearish signal because inflation remains high, or as inflation easing in line with expectations, depends on how the market reacts.

The “wild-guess” script was all wrong. After that, I honestly went back to combining trades with the order book, but that also ended up letting us take a short holiday for a breather. With that said, back to the charts.

BTC

Yesterday, after falling to the lower edge of the support area 61,730–62,466, it received support and showed signs of a rebound. This is also the lower rail of the uptrend line in this round, and it resonates with the 12H MA30. If there is support, then a rebound is inevitable—but will the market start this rebound here?

In my view, the sell-off will likely continue. On the 4-hour timeframe, it’s a classic rebound-without-strength setup. This is a sideways-to-choppy, stalled market—an inverted flag/bear flag pattern of sorts. Based on past experience, when this pattern touches the MA10 on the 4H timeframe during a period of consolidation, a new round of selling usually begins. From a timing perspective, it also lines up nicely with the CPI release at 8:30 PM at night to trigger a waterfall move.

Of course, everything above is wishful thinking. Looking from a larger timeframe—like the weekly chart—there is indeed the possibility of a pullback to the MA250 (around 58,041). But even if there is a pullback, it will definitely be the final healthy “risk release” pullback: after the pullback, the weekly candle closes with a relatively long lower wick, and the week after starts a big rally journey.

Currently, BTC’s 4H timeframe is already running below MA250. If the 12H MA30 is broken down decisively, then the continuation of the downtrend is basically a done deal. For support, first look at 603–608, then around 580–591. In extreme conditions, look near 56,440.

ETH

ETH ultimately still pushed into the 1,840–1,860 range, which matches my call from two weeks ago. Unfortunately, I exited my long position at 1,684, which led to self-doubt again and resulted in missing the move. And then, unable to stay calm, I FOMO-chased a short—so the emotional control in trading is something I still need to practice…

Back to the charts: ETH’s走势 remains stronger than BTC’s. The exchange rate has moved to the 12H major resistance level, the MA250. There is a need for a pullback—specifically, during the exchange-rate decline, ETH’s downside needs to exceed BTC’s downside.

ETH’s 12H timeframe has already clearly shown a bearish “top divergence” on RSI, and the pattern-wise formation of a potential double top (M-top) is emerging. If it breaks down below 1,710 on increased volume (the neckline), then the M-top would essentially be confirmed. However, whether it’s MA30 or MA90, both are still located above 1,710. To break down through the neckline in a single push, you’d definitely need some convincing momentum/volume to drive it.

Although yesterday it touched the main force’s control line around 1,747 and received a precise bounce, the current price is still firmly capped by the 4H MA30. As long as there is no effective breakout above 1,796, we still maintain a bearish bias.

Support is 1,674–1,712. Below that, it’s 1,604–1,635. For this round’s extreme target, we’re looking at 1,533–1,554.

综合分析:

Today is very likely the day of a trend-defining inflection. Both the news cycle and the technical picture point to that. As for where it will end up after the expected drop—no one knows—but it will definitely be one of the key support levels mentioned above.

If things go smoothly, it will give us a very good opportunity to buy the dip. We don’t need to be pessimistic about new lows at a bigger scale. If a significant pullback really happens, it will definitely be our chance to game a big upside swing!