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Tonight’s CPI looks like it’s cooling off on the surface—core CPI is the real bomb!
Liang Ge is blunt: tonight at 8:30 CPI, the overall figure is expected to drop from 4.2% to 3.8%, oil prices are down 15%, and it looks good. But core CPI only drops from 2.9% to 2.8%, a decrease of just 0.1%—that’s the real blade.
The Fed wants to lure you into the trade with the headline number, but rent and food costs are still expensive, and core inflation is stuck tight. Tonight, Waller also plans to go to Congress and be hawkish—rate-hike odds have already jumped from 25% to 41.7%, so it’s not just to scare you.
Retail attention has fallen to a one-year low, but the big whales are quietly accumulating. Liang Ge advises you: tonight don’t gamble on direction, and don’t touch options/derivatives contracts. The data move will be instantly chopped up by algorithms and leverage cross-fighting—if you rush in, you’re basically donating.
Wait until the market stabilizes before moving. It’s not worth making a move just a few minutes early.
Remember: headline CPI is for outsiders to look at—core CPI is the knife that insiders trade with. Staying alive matters more than winning one round.
Tonight at 8:30—hold your hands steady. Understand it first, then act. Do you think the data will beat expectations? Drop your thoughts in the comments.