Mr. Beck’s Analysis》The Market’s Cambrian Stage: The Second Periodic Bottoming Signal Appears

On-chain analyst Mr. Beig (@market_beggar) posted that after the June “PSIP < 50%”, the second periodic bottoming signal of this bear market cycle—the “AVIV Heatmap”—has also appeared. It currently shows that BTC has officially entered the “blue dip-buying zone🟦”, marking the first time since early 2023 that BTC has returned to this range. AVIV Heatmap is a on-chain indicator designed personally by him and is listed as one of the “four major deep-bear dip-buying models.” This article is a market analysis posted by Mr. Beig on X, organized by 動區動趨 into a cooperation column for 《動區學院計畫》.

(Background: BTC Cycle Thermometer: the market is already very close to the actual “ice-point dip-buying stage”) (Background addition: Mr. Beig’s analysis: BTC bear market progress, on the final stretch)

In early June, I shared with everyone the first recurring bottoming signal that appeared: PSIP < 50%. Nearly a month later, the second periodic bottoming signal has also surfaced. This signal is the “AVIV Heatmap” I want to share today.

Let’s get to the conclusion first: the AVIV Heatmap currently shows that BTC has officially entered the “blue dip-buying zone🟦”.

AVIV Heatmap shows BTC officially entering the blue dip-buying zone | Image source: Mr. Beig (@market_beggar)

The indicator in the attached image is AVIV Heatmap. Let’s briefly revisit the core concepts:
➡️ The full name is AVIV Heatmap, my personally designed model
➡️ AVIV can be viewed as the “profit multiple of active supply,” which is an optimized version of MVRV
➡️ AVIV Heatmap is a model designed by leveraging the mean-reversion characteristic of AVIV
➡️ The concept originates from the Cointime Economic methodology (proposed by Ark, Glassnode)

As shown in the attached figure:
As one of the “four major deep-bear dip-buying models,” AVIV Heatmap has, in the last few days, indicated that BTC has officially entered the “Cambrian dip-buying moment of the cycle,” which is the first time since early 2023 that BTC has returned to the “blue dip-buying zone.”

Everyone who has been old friends with Beig knows:
Whether it was the top-escape in early 2025, or the shorting in July to October 2025, AVIV Heatmap has always played an extremely important guiding role.

Since the birth of BTC, it has consistently followed the following规律:
➡️ Bull turns to bear: red🟥 > orange🟧 > yellow🟨 > green🟩 > blue🟦
➡️ Bear turns to bull: blue🟦 > green🟩 > yellow🟨 > orange🟧 > red🟥

Back to the present, although BTC has officially entered the periodic dip-buying zone, there are still two things I need to emphasize to everyone:
1️⃣ After entering the blue zone, it usually doesn’t immediately bottom; instead, there will be a period of range-bound “grinding the bottom”
2️⃣ AVIV Heatmap itself is more like a “state indicator,” and cannot precisely point out the bottom price

The signals provided by AVIV Heatmap are already the second “periodic bottoming signal” that has appeared so far in this bear market’s development.

If you’re a long-term spot investor who doesn’t have much pursuit of the absolute bottom price, and instead prefers “fuzzy but correct,” then by combining the signal shared last time — the PSIP < 50% dip-buying signal (quoted below) — the strategy of positioning for BTC from now on is not a big problem.

Dawn is coming, the harsh winter is nearing its end; the market is only on the final stretch before a return of spring.
The road of the bear market is long—may all of you come with me to reap blessings and create brilliance together.

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal opinions and analysis of the author, Mr. Beig. It does not represent the stance of 動區動趨 and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; investors should assess risks on their own.