The escalation of the conflict between Iran and the U.S. reshaped the global asset pricing landscape through three channels: energy shocks, inflation expectations, and tighter liquidity. Crude oil surged due to expectations of a supply disruption, while gold came under pressure as rate-hike expectations were reinforced. Bitcoin, meanwhile, wavered and traded sideways between the narratives of “risk asset” and “digital gold.” Bitcoin failed to establish safe-haven status in this geopolitical crisis, but it also did not experience the kind of sharp selloff seen in traditional risk assets. This “in-between state” itself suggests that the market’s understanding of Bitcoin’s asset attributes is still evolving. The future direction will depend on whether the conflict escalates further, whether inflation data comes in above expectations, and how the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy path.

FAQ Q: What is the direct impact of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on crude oil prices? The blockade directly cuts the effective global supply of crude oil. Brent crude futures’ gains briefly widened to 10%, reaching $83.7 per barrel. Oil prices jumped from $67 per barrel at the beginning of the month to nearly $80 per barrel.

Q: Why did gold fall rather than rise during the geopolitical crisis? A surge in oil prices lifted inflation expectations, strengthening expectations for Fed rate hikes. Rising real interest rates weighed on the price of gold, a non-yielding asset. Gold prices broke below the $4,000 level.

Q: Is Bitcoin “digital gold” or a risk asset? Based on this event, Bitcoin neither rose like gold driven by safe-haven demand nor fully followed risk assets into a plunge. Instead, it traded in a range of $62,000–$63,000. Market perceptions of its asset attributes are still in a phase of debate.

Q: How does the crypto market get affected by geopolitical conflicts? Mainly through the risk appetite channel (investors reduce risk exposure) and the liquidity channel (inflation → tightening → tighter liquidity). The current crypto market is in a typical “news-driven trading” scenario.

Q: How would rising miners’ energy costs affect the Bitcoin price? Higher oil prices raise power costs and squeeze miners’ profit margins. Some high-cost miners may be forced to sell Bitcoin to cover operating expenses, increasing sell-side supply pressure in the market.