#沃什听证会撞上CPI U.S. June CPI data released on July 14 (Beijing time 20:30) is the key “commanding indicator” for the market this week. Against the backdrop of the Fed shifting policy, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and valuation battles in U.S. tech stocks, tonight’s inflation reading will directly determine the near-term direction of major asset classes.

I. CPI outlook: cooling at the surface vs sticky inflation
Markets broadly expect the year-over-year growth rate of the overall CPI in June to fall from May’s 4.2% to 3.8%-3.9%, while the month-over-month figure could turn negative. But the significance of this data has been heavily discounted by institutions:
The “mathematical effect” from energy: the downward move in overall inflation is almost entirely due to the low-base benefit brought by falling international oil prices—this is in the past tense.
Core inflation is the key: stripping out food and energy, core CPI is expected to stay at 2.9% (Goldman Sachs forecasts a drop to 2.8%). If core inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that endogenous pressures such as wage growth in the services sector have not eased—this is the real test for the Fed.

II. Three scenario simulations and their market impact
1. In line with expectations / broadly hotter (risk assets under pressure)
If the released core CPI is unchanged from or higher than the 2.9% forecast, or if the overall CPI fails to meet the downside target, the market will interpret it as a “false cooling.”
Interest-rate expectations: concerns that the Fed may not cut rates this year—or may even restart rate hikes—will be further reinforced (currently, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a July rate hike has risen to nearly 50%).
Asset performance:
U.S. dollar & U.S. Treasury yields: a strong rebound and upside momentum.
Gold: losing both safe-haven and anti-inflation support; it is likely to break below key levels and probe lower.
U.S. equities: Nasdaq growth stocks, represented by AI hardware and semiconductors, face sharp pullbacks; capital may temporarily flow into defensive sectors.
2. Much cooler than expected (a “revelry-style” rebound)
If core CPI is significantly below expectations (for example, falling to 2.7%), and the housing sub-item cools at the same time, this will give a boost to weak nonfarm payrolls.
Interest-rate expectations: the probability of a rate cut in September will rise substantially, and Fed Funds futures pricing will quickly tilt dovishly.
Asset performance:
Nasdaq index: warming liquidity-easing expectations; high-level tech stocks will see another round of violent upside.
Gold: kicking off a period of strong upward volatility.
Watch out for traps: because positioning for momentum trades has been extremely crowded in the prior period, even if the macro narrative is positive, it is still very likely to trigger intraday violent swings as profit-taking and de-risking unwind the move.
3. “Hawkish exam”: compounded pressure from the Wosk hearing
In addition to the CPI itself, at 22:00 today, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Woss will deliver testimony to Congress.
Given the recent hawkish signals he has sent and the uncertainty around the Trump administration’s tariff/fiscal policies, any hints about delaying rate cuts or keeping rates high for longer will amplify the size of market swings tonight.

Trading recommendations
The leading driver behind cross-asset linkages is shifting from fundamentals to positioning momentum and sentiment reversal. Around the CPI release—especially in the half hour before and after—global capital markets’ volatility will surge sharply. It is strongly recommended to stay in cash and observe before major data and events land, to avoid stop-loss failure caused by enlarged slippage.