⚽ The World Cup semifinals kick off tonight—four giants clash!

France, Spain, England, and Argentina—these four teams, all ranked in FIFA’s top four, converge for the semifinals. For the first time in World Cup history, all four semifinalists are teams ranked in the global top four. Tonight is destined to be etched into the annals of the sport.

Semifinal matchups (Beijing time):

July 15 03:00 🇫🇷 France vs Spain (Dallas)

July 16 03:00 🏴 England vs 🇦🇷 Argentina

I. France vs Spain: A preview of a showdown at its peak
France have gone unbeaten in this World Cup, winning all 6 matches. In all three knockout games, they kept clean sheets against their opponents. Mbappé has scored 8 goals and is tied for the top spot on the Golden Boot with Messi.

Spain edged past Belgium 2-1 in the Round of 16. The goalkeeper Unai Simón’s consecutive World Cup clean sheets record, which had been maintained up to that point, ended at 650 minutes. In the past two major tournaments (UEFA Euro 2024, the 2022 World Cup), Spain eliminated France in both.

What’s the prediction market saying?

Polymarket data shows France is leading by a wide margin, with a 39% chance to win the title—an outright lead. England is at 22%, Spain at 21%, and Argentina at 17%. France’s probability of advancing to the final is about 57%-61%, while Spain’s is about 39%-43%. “Smart money” is also backing France to advance, with a probability of 61-63%. In the institutional title odds, France at 6/4 ranks first, while Spain and England are tied for second.

II. Crypto market linkage: Macro headwinds, waiting for CPI
On the macro front, tensions in the US-Iran situation continue to heat up, and worries about inflation moving higher and interest rates staying elevated remain persistent. Bitcoin is hovering around $62,700. The Fed’s probability of a rate hike in July has risen to about 50%, up from roughly 10% just a few days earlier. The July 16 CPI data is coming out soon, and the market is holding its breath.

The crypto market is under clear short-term pressure. BTC has pulled back from the peak of 63,994 to 62,503, showing a pattern of surging up and then falling back. Both bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war in the 62,000-62,800 range, and the direction still needs guidance from macro signals.

III. Gate prediction market hands-on training
Tonight’s live stream—step by step, I’ll show you how to play the Gate prediction market:

Title prediction: France 39% leads, England 22%, Spain 21%, Argentina 17%—who’s more worth betting on?

Single match outcome: France’s chance to advance is about 57-61%, Spain 42-43%—is the market pricing reasonable?

Golden Boot race: Mbappé leads with 8 goals—are there arbitrage opportunities in the odds?

How to use USDT to participate in predictions: From the homepage → Alpha → Polymarket → World Cup Center, and I’ll guide you step by step to complete your first trade

🎁 Tonight’s live-stream giveaway

Inter Milan themed T-shirt ×1

10U prediction voucher ×3

⏰ Tonight 20:00 Gate Live—Teacher Yibo will take you to watch the semifinals, play predictions, and chat about the market!

No missing the fun of watching, predicting, or winning rewards—see you tonight 🔥