July 14 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report｜Tonight’s CPI could be the turning point—these levels determine the next direction

“Jiang Feng Trading Diary” Episode 2

Every day, I publicly record my market judgments. I only share real trading logic—welcome everyone to witness it together.

Yesterday, the market continued to pull back. Bitcoin’s low probed around 61,800, while Ethereum’s low came to around 1,748, successfully reaching the first target of the short position placed earlier near 1,850. Since the price didn’t provide an ideal entry point, the public strategy from yesterday wasn’t executed. Today, the original plan remains unchanged.

In one sentence for today: continue to focus on a short-on-the-high approach, mainly guarding against the sharp volatility caused by tonight’s CPI data—participate with low exposure and control risk.

BTC watch levels

Upward resistance:
63,300—63,600, 64,600

Downward support:
61,800—60,500—60,000—59,600

ETH watch levels

Upward resistance:
1,800—1,810, 1,850, 1,880

Downward support:
1,750—1,680—1,640—1,530

Key focus for today’s market

Yesterday’s Bitcoin ETF once again turned to net outflows, with single-day net outflows of about $425 million. At the same time, tonight will release the U.S. CPI data, which is the biggest risk event for the market today.

The market is generally pricing in that the Fed will take further action in September. In the coming months, policy expectations have already begun to affect market sentiment. Therefore, I believe that the rebound showing up recently is more suitable for finding short opportunities at higher levels, rather than blindly chasing or selling aggressively.

Technical analysis

From the daily chart, Bitcoin has already fallen below the 21-day moving average (around 62,900), and the short-term trend remains weak. The EMA55 daily moving average is located around 65,500. Meanwhile, the 63,300—63,600 area as well as around 64,600 are still key near-term resistance zones.

Currently, the price is temporarily holding near the Bollinger Bands midline around 61,800, but I think this support will likely break soon. If tonight’s CPI data comes in above market expectations, a further dip to the 60,500 and even 60,000 areas isn’t out of the question.

During the release of tonight’s CPI, price fluctuations could notably intensify. It’s recommended to reduce position size, avoid emotionally driven trading, and strictly manage risk.

After tonight’s CPI is released, do you think BTC will break upward or keep falling? Feel free to leave your view in the comments. Tomorrow, we’ll review and validate together.

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