CPI puts pressure on the big cake! $BTC Tonight decides the direction

Brothers, the big cake has been consolidating around 62,582, and the market is holding its breath for tonight’s 20:30 June CPI data.

News catalysts:

Tonight is “Super Inflation Day” — CPI plus the Waller hearing stacked together. The market expects overall CPI year-over-year to drop from 4.2% to 3.8%, but core CPI is expected to only dip slightly from 2.9% to 2.8%. What the Fed truly cares about is core inflation — if YoY returns to 3%, it means the improvement process will stall.

More importantly, Fed Governor Waller turned hawkish early last night: if core inflation keeps running hot, “the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.” Interest-rate futures show that the probability of a July rate hike has surged to 50%.

Technical levels:

Resistance above: 62,800-63,000, strong pressure at 63,500-64,000

Support below: 62,000-62,200, if it breaks, look at 61,500-61,300

Gongming’s take:

The CPI data will determine tonight’s direction. If core CPI comes in above expectations, rate-hike expectations will heat up further, and the big cake may take another cut; if it’s below expectations, there may be a rebound in the short term. Don’t take a position before the data — wait until it lands.

Trading plan:

Aggressive: short near 62,700-63,000 on the rebound

Prudent: stay flat, then act after the CPI data lands

Don’t bet direction before the data — it’s better to miss than to get it wrong.
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