Xia Zhi’s trading notes: This week brings a double major macro test—CPI data layered with the Wosch hearing—crypto market volatility warning

This week, the crypto market will directly face two blockbuster macro events with extremely strong correlations. The two key turning points are only 90 minutes apart. Pricing for expectations around USD liquidity and U.S. Treasury yields will be concentrated and set, and volatility in the order books of major coins will be thoroughly amplified. Every derivatives trader must clearly understand the underlying logic of this round’s news flow and prepare for position and risk management, as well as trading contingency plans.

In Beijing time, Tuesday at 20:30, the U.S. June CPI inflation data will be officially released. Only one and a half hours later, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair Wosch will hold the House of Representatives congressional hearing—his first since taking office. Armed with the latest inflation data just released, he will face lawmakers’ questioning, and after setting the tone with official remarks, the market will get clarity on the future path for monetary policy. One data point, one speech, together forming cross-validation: whether the two results confirm in the same direction will directly determine the short-term global risk-asset pricing logic, and will be the most valuable macro “wind vane” before the late-July FOMC meeting.

1. June CPI data preview: inflation heats or cools—directly rewrites rate-cut expectations
Currently, major Wall Street institutions are broadly aligned in their forecast: year-over-year U.S. CPI for June will fall from the prior value of 4.2% to 3.8%, core CPI year-over-year will edge down from 2.9% to 2.8%, and the month-over-month figure is expected to show the first negative growth in more than six years, indicating that near-term inflation pressure has been partially relieved at the stage level.
If the final released data meets expectations or even comes in below forecasts, it means the U.S. inflation cooling trend is confirmed. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year will quickly heat up: the USD weakens, U.S. Treasury yields fall, and crypto risk assets like “Big Pie, Ether” will see bargain-hunting inflows, with a rebound and repair rally starting in the short term.
If the inflation data runs hotter than expected, it would mean price stickiness far exceeds what the Fed anticipated. The market will immediately price in the possibility of further rate hikes. Under the weight of tightening liquidity expectations, broad-market pressure is likely to move lower, opening up even more room for the bears.
Whether inflation moderates this round depends largely on international crude oil prices continuing to trend lower recently. The energy-side decline gives the Fed some room to wait and observe; but if oil prices rebound again and recover, inflation data is highly likely to rebound as well—this is the biggest current point of divergence between long and short positioned capital.

2. Key takeaways from the Wosch hearing: new chair’s stance, anchoring the direction of full-year rates
This hearing is Wosch’s first public testimony on monetary policy within a half-year framework after formally taking over as Fed chair. He cannot avoid or blur the interest-rate plan any longer; he must, together with the fresh inflation data, clearly state the emphasis in the trade-off between future rate hikes and rate cuts.
Two core positions in the hearing are worth focusing on:
If his remarks are broadly dovish, emphasizing downside risks to domestic economic conditions and downplaying the urgency of suppressing inflation, it will signal a possible pause in tightening monetary policy. Liquidity easing expectations will warm up, which will directly benefit the entire crypto market and support a stronger broad trend;
If the wording leans more hawkish and firm, keeping curbing inflation as the top priority, and if there is no exclusion of restarting rate hikes, then the market will quickly revise the earlier easing fantasies, and risk assets are likely to start a round of deep pullbacks.
In current rate swap market pricing, the probability of a rate hike before year-end is already 54%. Long and short expectations are already split down the middle. This hearing’s remarks will smooth out the expectation gap and trigger one-way momentum with very strong directional force.

3. After the two events land: scenario paths for BTC and ETH
1. CPI cools + Wosch stance leans dovish
With the dual support of liquidity-easing expectations, “Big Pie” has the momentum to probe the 64,000–65,000 resistance pressure zone to the upside. Ether follows the broad market in a rebound, pushing up to challenge the dense prior-chunk resistance level above 1,840.
2. CPI inflation stays stubborn + Wosch stance leans hawkish
Tightening expectations pressure the board in both directions. “Big Pie” may accelerate and break down through the current support band, then test the key 61,000 threshold to the downside. Under extreme sentiment, it could even dip toward the 58,000 area. Ether will also weaken in sync, retesting below 1,700 to search for new support levels.

4. Practical advice for traders in the circle
With the two major events connected around the same time, the market’s chart will likely be plagued by stop-loss sweeps and wide-range volatility as a norm this week. Under extremely high volatility, it is a major trading taboo to blindly predict direction and go all-in on a one-way bet.
Before the news fully lands, the market is filled with uncertainty. At this time, the priority of position management will always be higher than judging price levels and direction. Rather than chasing and selling in a fog of market action and getting repeatedly harvested back and forth, it is better to patiently wait until both the CPI release and the hearing are fully over, when market expectations become completely clear and the price action shows a definite trend—then enter and build a trade in the same direction. This is far more stable and controllable than trying to bet on the news-fuel contest in advance.

The essence of trading is always to first contain risk, and only then seek returns. Macro storms are coming. Stability comes first; only then can one go steady and far. $BTC $ETH #特朗普呼吁尽快通过Clarity法案