Weeks In Red 🔴

On 10 October 2025, crypto printed the largest liquidation event in its history.
We know the market's been in red since. But how much? And which ones?
Weeks closed red, out of 39:
$SUI: 26 (66.7%)
$ONDO: 26 (66.7%)
$AVAX: 26 (66.7%)
$LINK: 25 (64.1%)
$BTC: 24 (61.5%)
$ETH: 23 (59.0%)
$TAO: 22 (56.4%)
$RENDER: 21 (53.8%)
$HYPE: 20 (51.3%)
Gold: 18 (46.2%)
Nasdaq: 18 (46.2%)
$TRX: 17 (43.6%)
S&P 500: 15 (38.5%)
1️⃣ Bitcoin closed red on 24 of the last 39 Mondays.
A 44% drawdown is one decision. Twenty-four red weeks is twenty-four decisions.
I think this has been the biggest reason for a lack of strength
2️⃣ The gap with TradFi is not the count. It is the size.
BTC was red 61.5% of weeks. The S&P was red 38.5%. A gap, but not a chasm.
Now look at what a red week costs:
Avg red week. BTC: -4.75%. S&P: -1.34%.
Worst week. BTC: -14.0%. S&P: -2.6%.
Max drawdown. BTC: -48.2%. Nasdaq: -11.7%.
The S&P took 15 red weeks and still finished +15.6%, because its average green week (+1.47%) was bigger than its average red week (-1.34%).
Bitcoin's average red week (-4.75%) was bigger than its average green week (+4.08%).
You don't have to be a Math expert to figure out why we are in the mud right now 🤦
3️⃣ Being up did not mean feeling up.
HYPE is +69% over the window. It closed red 20 of 39 weeks.
[BLABLA] is +533%. It also closed red 20 of 39 weeks.
You could have held the best performing asset in this dataset and still watched it close red more than half the time.
Btw, there is not BLABLA.
Crypto returns are not distributed. They are concentrated. HYPE's best single week was +39%. [BLABLA]'s was +145.6%.
Which is a quiet argument against trading this. If you were red 51% of weeks and trying to time your way out, the odds you were in cash for the week that mattered are excellent.
4️⃣ Volatility is not punishment. It is optionality.
TAO had fewer red weeks than BTC, 22 vs 24, and the worst average red week of any major at -11.06%. But its average green week was +13.3%, and its best was +55.5%.
AVAX had 26 red weeks, an average green week of +5.81%, and a best week of +12.8%. No relief. No rallies. Just -71.6%.
AVAX carried the volatility of a high beta asset and collected none of the upside. Yeah, sorry avalanche folk.
5️⃣ SUI went red for eight straight weeks.
BTC and ETH each managed six week red streaks. The S&P put together a nine week green streak.
Streaks are where conviction dies. Nobody capitulates on a single bad week. They capitulate in week six, when they stop believing the next one will be different.
✦ What it means
I think everyone is of the same opinion - this is not a correction. This is a bear market.
Yes, we did not get the altseason super cycle and we got a bear market. We have to live with the facts.
The October crash was over in a day. The bear market was the 24 Mondays that followed.
One exception, and it is the most interesting row here:
TRX was red 17 weeks, fewer than gold, fewer than the Nasdaq, and finished +2.6%.
The most boring asset in crypto was the only one that behaved like a real one.
And this is what prompted me to make this post to be honest, seeing @trondao 's performance a couple days ago.
We'll probably cover it in depth this week too.
Method: 39 weekly candles, Mon 00:00 UTC to Sun 23:59 UTC, close to close. Baseline close 12 Oct 2025. Final close 12 Jul 2026. Primary data, computed in house.