Tonight is CPI night—don’t let the headlines about “inflation slowing down” mislead you!—It looks like it’s pulling back, but in reality, the Fed’s rate-hike expectations haven’t gone away at all

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Market expects June CPI to fall year over year. Put simply, most of the credit is due to gasoline prices dropping from their recent highs. But here’s the irony: last week, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks directly broke down, and oil prices turned around and jumped back— the U.S. average price of regular gasoline has already returned to $3.87 per gallon

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That means this pullback is more like a “one-time faceplant,” not inflation truly cooling off. What’s even more worrying is that core prices are still accumulating upward— inflation stickiness is extremely strong. Industry folks put it plainly: consumer pressure has only eased from 10 to 9, and it hasn’t even stepped out of the woods

With this backdrop, even if CPI comes in lower as expected, it completely can’t rule out the possibility of the Fed adding another rate hike before the end of the year—this is the heaviest sword hanging over the crypto market

Finally, something straightforward: don’t just stare at the headline CPI and bet on which way it will go. This time, core inflation is the real deciding factor. And CPI is just the appetizer—Waller’s first Congressional appearance later on can flip the market at any moment. Keep your position size tightly controlled; don’t go heavy on a bet on a single-direction move #沃什听证会撞上CPI