Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have surged sharply, and crude oil has strengthened across the board. Overnight, Brent crude jumped more than 9%; domestic crude oil benchmarks held above the $500 per barrel level, and geopolitical risk premium is strongly supporting prices.

The US announced that at 4:00 a.m. on the 15th it will launch the Iran port blockade policy. All ships traveling to and from Iran will be uniformly charged a 20% freight fee, covering all of Iran’s coastal oil terminals. Only neutral transit vessels and humanitarian goods can pass, and the goods must be inspected.

Tanker passage through the strait has fallen to a two-month low. Ongoing mutual strikes between Iran and the US, along with frequent attacks on merchant ships, are further intensifying market risk aversion. Iran’s crude oil exports are being hindered, and refineries are increasingly switching to buy crude at par from Iraq and the UAE. With the conflict continuing to intensify at this stage, oil prices are maintaining a strong, volatile range. If signals of easing emerge later, the market could see sharp fluctuations. #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡