Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have flared up again, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s energy chokepoint—have pushed crude oil higher across the board, leading commodities. Brent crude surged more than 9% overnight, and on Tuesday China’s domestic benchmark crude oil futures stayed above the 500 yuan per barrel threshold. Geopolitical risk premium has continued to support oil prices for a near-term upward move. Going forward, investors need to watch for signals of U.S.-Iran de-escalation; if any positive news emerges, oil price volatility may be amplified.

The U.S. announced that at 4:00 a.m. on the 15th it will launch an Iran port blockade operation. The president said it is a restart of the blockade policy, imposing a 20% transit toll on all cargo shipments passing through. The controls cover all of Iran’s coastline and oil port terminals, without restriction on vessel nationality. Neutral vessels can continue to pass through without stopping in Iran, while humanitarian cargo clearance requires verification.

With the U.S. and Iran striking each other in succession, attacks on vessels in shipping lanes have become frequent, and market risk-avoidance sentiment toward shipping has spiked. The number of tankers transiting the strait in a single day hit a new two-month low. Iran’s crude exports have cooled, and independent refineries have increasingly switched to buying at parity from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Under the dual effect of ongoing geopolitical conflict and rising risk premium, international oil prices overall have maintained a strong trend.
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