Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. June CPI will be released. The market’s median expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress, and early the next morning at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.

The current macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets:
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
Brent crude oil briefly rose above $85;
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen to about 4.63%;
The U.S. Dollar Index is near its highs for the month;
The market-implied probability of a 25 BP rate hike by late July has increased to about 43%.

This means today’s CPI is not ordinary data, but is being released amid an oil-price shock and heightened rate-hike expectations.
In addition, on July 13, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw net outflows of about $239.2 million, while the ETH ETF saw net outflows of about $15.4 million, and institutional funds have not yet formed a strong backstop.#特朗普呼吁尽快通过Clarity法案 $BTC ‌