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What is the secret weapon for the match between France and Spain?
In the early hours of July 15, the Canada-UK-Mexico World Cup will host its first semifinal as France, ranked No. 1 in the world, takes on Spain, ranked No. 2.

France went through the group stage with six wins in six matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 2. In the knockout stage, they even kept three straight clean sheets. Plus, since they haven’t played extra time, their fitness is abundant—no matter how you look at it, France is the strongest contender for the title.

But Spain is not weak either. Within the past three years, they have beaten France twice in semifinals. This time, facing their old rival again, their mindset is rock-solid.

They’ve already found the winning rhythm

Based on Spain’s performance in this World Cup so far, they are not as dominant as France. In the opening of the group stage, they were held to a draw by the newcomers, Cape Verde, which once raised doubts about their chances of advancing. Fortunately, they gradually found their winning rhythm afterward, knocking out strong opponents and advancing to the semifinals.

Compared with France’s sharp attacking play, the key to Spain’s success is their solid defense. Before beating Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals, Spain had gone 6 consecutive matches in this World Cup without conceding a goal, creating the longest clean-sheet run in World Cup history. That means if opponents want to win, they must find a way to make Spain commit mistakes.

Of course, Spain’s run to the semifinals is not just about defense. As the birthplace of possession-based football, this World Cup, Spain has taken possession play to the extreme. Head coach De la Fuente’s main system is 4-3-3 possession and penetration, with the core being Rodri, along with Pedri and Fabián. After securing control of the ball, they search for the moment when the opponent’s defensive focus shifts in passing, and then strike immediately and decisively.

Spain has an edge in head-to-head history

There are plenty of high-level matchups in football, but two teams like France and Spain, battling each other in semifinals for three consecutive years, is absolutely unique. The two teams have faced each other 38 times in history: Spain leads with 18 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses. In the two semifinal meetings over the past three years, Spain has even left an unforgettable memory for France’s fans.

In the 2024 European Championship semifinal, France broke the deadlock first and took the initiative. Just when it looked like they were set to reach the final, Lamine Yamal produced a spectacular world-class goal to turn the tide. Then Olmo scored after a deflection, and Spain completed a 2-1 comeback, shattering France’s dream of the final. In the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal, the two teams staged a 9-goal thriller with ups and downs: Spain at one point led 5-1, and in the face of desperation, France pulled back three goals. In the end, they lost 4-5—falling to the same opponent for the second consecutive year.

Winning those two semifinals gives Spain, when they stand again on the semifinal stage, enough psychological advantage.

Yamal’s performance is crucial

In this match, whether Spain can emerge victorious will depend heavily on Yamal’s performance. After all, in his duels against Mbappé, he has maintained a very high win rate.

As France’s top star, Mbappé’s performance is unquestionable—but he has been perfectly contained by 18-year-old Yamal. The two have faced each other 10 times across league and cup competitions, and Yamal’s team won 8 of those matches, giving an 80% win rate and effectively creating a one-sided suppression of Mbappé. More intuitively, another stat tells the story: in five single-match knockout meetings, Yamal won all five—never losing once.

After Spain eliminated Belgium 2-1, when a reporter asked Yamal how he assessed the matchup against France, the youngster said: “If there’s a team that should be afraid, it should be them. Because it was us who eliminated them before. Now it’s two of the strongest teams in the world facing off—let’s see what happens.”

When Spain, with its psychological advantage and defensive resilience, meets France, who are carrying revenge dreams and counterattacking firepower, who will win? The answer will be revealed soon.