AI predicts a chaotic battle in the semifinals: France is safe, or is the France-UK clash a life-or-death unknown?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher 0210)_

The previous article about the World Cup Round of 8 predicted that 6 AI models all favored France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After four matches, there were four semifinal tickets—none of the AIs got even one wrong.

France advanced with the easiest path. Although Mbappé missed a penalty, he then completed a goal and an assist, helping France beat Morocco 2:0. Spain again pulled off a late winner: Mikel Merino scored in the 88th minute to defeat Belgium 2:1. The other two matches went into extra time: Bellingham scored twice to help England complete a 2:1 comeback against Norway; Argentina, despite being a man down against Switzerland, didn’t score twice until the late stage of extra time, surviving with a hard-fought 3:1 to advance.

Similarly, to participate more effectively in the semifinal prediction market, I asked six AI models again—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok—to predict regulation-time win/loss, scores, and whether the match would go to extra time or a penalty shootout.

But in the semifinals, the predictions from the 6 AI models showed clear divergence. France vs Spain: 5 AIs backed France to advance, and all of them also predicted the score as 2:1. England vs Argentina: this match had the biggest split. 3 AIs supported England, while the other 3 favored Argentina. For whether the match would go to extra time or even a penalty shootout, there was no consensus either.

5 AIs unanimously predicted France to beat Spain 2:1—only Gemini favored Spain to advance

The first semifinal of this World Cup is France vs Spain, scheduled for 3:00 a.m. on July 15 (Beijing time). According to predict.fun data, in regulation time France’s win probability is 42%; draw probability is 30%; Spain’s win probability is 30%. In addition, including extra time and penalties, France’s advancement probability is 60%, and Spain’s is 40%.

These are the two most defensively stable teams in this World Cup. After France entered the knockout stage, they have not conceded a goal; Spain has also been breached only once throughout the tournament. However, the way the two teams win is completely different. Spain controls the ball and uses high pressing to set the rhythm, while France is better at quick transitions, creating threats directly with the pace and individual ability of their front players.

Among the 6 AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen all chose France to advance. And the 5 models’ score predictions are all France 2:1 Spain. Spain may have more possession, but once their fullbacks push up significantly, the space behind them could become a hidden danger. Against Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise, France doesn’t need to besiege for long; if they can catch a few moments of attack-transition, they have a chance to swing the match directly.

ChatGPT’s read of the match flow is more specific. It believes France will score first through counterattacks; Spain will equalize in the second half; then Spain keeps pushing forward, only to be caught by France in the space behind them for a late knockout. Claude says there’s a possibility the match could be dragged into extra time, but in the end—just like Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen—it still picks France 2:1 to win in regulation time.

The only AI choosing Spain is Gemini. It predicts both teams level 1:1 after 120 minutes, and Spain advances via a penalty shootout. Gemini’s focus isn’t whether Spain can press France’s attacks. Instead, it thinks Spain can reduce the number of attack-transition moments in the game through sustained possession, keeping France’s most dangerous counterattacking threat to a minimum.

As long as Spain doesn’t concede early, the match has a chance to play out in a rhythm that they’re familiar with. France may have explosive presences like Mbappé and Dembélé, but against Spain’s midfield control, it’s hard for France to find much open space. And since France have conceded zero goals in the knockout stage, it’s also not easy for Spain to score repeatedly in a set-piece/possession battle. Therefore, Gemini’s analysis suggests the match could stay in a low-score state for a long time, with both sides taking their chances once and then stalemating all the way to the penalty shootout.

So whether Gemini can also become the only AI that correctly picks Spain to advance becomes another major highlight of this match. By contrast, the divergence in the other semifinal is far bigger—England vs Argentina, and none of the 6 AIs managed to reach consensus on the advancement direction.

England and Argentina advancement predictions split evenly, with disagreement on whether it goes to extra time—even penalties

The second semifinal of this World Cup is England vs Argentina, scheduled for 3:00 a.m. on July 16 (Beijing time). According to predict.fun data, in regulation time England’s win probability is 37%; draw probability is 33%; Argentina’s win probability is 32%. In addition, including extra time and penalties, England’s advancement probability is 55%, and Argentina’s is 45%.

Compared with France and Spain, this match is harder to judge. Both teams played the full 120 minutes in the previous round. England reversed Norway in extra time, and Argentina only beat Switzerland in the late stage of extra time. Physical exhaustion, the condition of key players, and the match tempo could all affect the final outcome.

For the predictions from the 6 AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.

The side backing England values physical duels, set pieces, and impact power more. Grok and DeepSeek both predict England to win 2:1 in regulation time, while Qianwen gives a more aggressive 2:0. England’s current attack is also highly concentrated on Kane and Bellingham. The two have accounted for the vast majority of the team’s goals, and Bellingham has even stepped up to solve problems in consecutive knockout matches. In these models’ view, England can keep applying pressure with high pressing, crosses, and set pieces, aiming to end the match within 90 minutes.

Argentina’s supporters are more confident in their knockout experience. Gemini predicts Argentina to advance 2:1 in regulation time, believing that Messi’s playmaking and ability to deliver key moments are still enough to decide a match of this level. Claude is more conservative, saying both sides are likely to get stuck in a low-score tug-of-war; in regulation time there is a chance to end 1:1, and the probability of being dragged into extra time is also clearly higher than in the first match—ultimately leaning toward Argentina. ChatGPT directly predicts a penalty shootout, believing that the teams finish 1:1 in regulation time and that neither side dares to push too hard in extra time; in the end, Argentina eliminates England 4:3 thanks to Emiliano Martínez and more extensive penalty shootout experience.

In the previous round, the AIs showed highly consistent predictions for the Final Four, and they ultimately guessed them all correctly. But in the semifinals, the results became one “consensus match” and one “disagreement match.” Can France break through Spain’s possession system, and will England and Argentina battle all the way to a penalty shootout again? This time, whose predictions are more worth trusting?

Recommended reading:

《The World Cup didn’t even start for a few days, and AI predictions already have a model crowned and a model crashing》

《Why do different AIs perform so differently when predicting the World Cup knockout stage?》

《The World Cup Round of 8 is about to kick off—who do the AIs vote to advance?》