🔥Big news! Waller turns hawkish + tonight’s CPI, yet BTC is still tough🤔?

Fed Governor Waller directly laid it out last night: if core inflation keeps running hot, the FOMC has to consider rate hikes in the near term. He added one more line—there can’t be a repeat of the mistake from 2021, when rate hikes came too slowly.

As soon as the remarks landed, the probability of a rate hike in July jumped from 34% to 46.5%. The 2-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.28%, the highest since February last year. Gold$XAU ‌
dropped below $4,000.

So what happened? BTC didn’t fall— it actually rose against the trend

$BTC ‌
At the current price around 62,695, the 24h low was 61,806 and the high was 63,260. BOLL upper band 62,752, middle band 62,617, lower band 62,482—the price is hugging the upper band, indicating the bulls haven’t surrendered yet. RSI 65.9, bullish but not overbought.

$ETH ‌
Even more obvious—1,785, with the 24h low at 1,748 and the high at 1,793. BOLL upper band 1,793, middle band 1,774, lower band 1,755—the price directly pressed up to the upper band. RSI 63.55. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is also down to multi-year lows, but funds are flowing back into ETH.

The logic is simple: the hawkish market already digested Waller’s comments; the real wildcard is tonight’s 6月 CPI at 20:30. The year-over-year forecast is down from 4.2% to 3.8%.

In line with expectations or lower → rate-hike expectations cool down → bullish;

Above expectations → a July hike is truly possible → near-term pressure.

What’s interesting is that retail attention has fallen to a 12-month low, back to 2020 levels.
Retail is panicking, while big whales are scooping up.

Before tonight’s CPI hits, the short-term BTC range will likely just bounce between 62,000 and 63,500. Either the data comes out and instantly chooses the direction, or you front-run and position ahead of time.

Remember: when others panic, look more closely at who’s making moves on-chain.

Follow me— I’ll interpret tonight’s CPI first.
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