SpaceX “sells off to $137” fast—shares plunge back toward the issue price. A Wall Street veteran warns: the squeeze rally is fading, and the share unlocking hasn’t even started yet.

SPCX’s stock price broke below $140 last night, edging toward the $135 IPO offering price. A Wall Street veteran, George Noble, warned that this is, in essence, the most carefully engineered exit liquidity cash-out in history—while the real unlock cycle hasn’t even started yet.
(Background: Since SpaceX’s debut, the lowest price has “dumped $145.” It went into the Nasdaq 100 but rose no more—falling instead.)
(Additional context: Wall Street legend bear Jeremy Grantham blasted SpaceX’s crash probability at 90%—and said rereading the prospectus 50 years later will be a big joke)

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) has continued to hit new lows: on Monday it fell below $140 to close at $137.74, down about 5.4% from the previous trading day’s close of $145.30. Intraday it also slashed as low as $136.78, approaching the $135 IPO offering price.

With the stock down about 39% from its post-listing high of $220, it can be said that the retail investors who bought after it started trading are now facing losses in the vast majority of cases.

Noble: “The largest exit liquidity cash-out in history”

George Noble, a seasoned investor who helped found Fidelity’s Overseas Fund, also launched criticism in a recent interview, pointing directly to this IPO—the “largest exit liquidity cash-out operation in history.” In his view, the IPO is designed in essence to harvest retail investors.

Noble noted that at the $135 pricing, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio (P/S) was already above 90x. Early after listing, it had climbed to around 140x. He argued the valuation and fundamentals are seriously disconnected. He described it as: “There was very little supply of shares at the time, and buy pressure was forced—this is a deliberately engineered short squeeze.”

The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history

SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.

Let me walk you through… pic.twitter.com/5AMJJwGY2a

— George Noble (@gnoble79) July 11, 2026

He further warned that this artificially stacked situation is about to reverse. Insiders’ shares will be unlocked in batches starting after the release of the Q2 earnings report, continuing through year-end, with the final unlock scheduled for June 2027. Noble believes that in the coming months, the key factor driving the stock price won’t be operating fundamentals, but rather the changes in share supply caused by the unlocks. He said outright that Starlink is currently SpaceX’s only business that can generate stable profits, but it’s still not enough to support the company’s overall market value. He estimates a “fair” share price of only about $30 per share, describing SpaceX as “the biggest-scale stock I’ve ever seen, with the most absurd valuation.”

Target price range, Starlink profits, and unlocks—not a cliff on a single day

But the bullish camp has its own arguments. Wall Street analysts’ target price range sits between $115 and $401. Most institutions still recognize SpaceX’s monopolistic position in aerospace infrastructure. And Starlink is indeed a business that’s actually making money—not just something built in the air.

The unlock cycle also isn’t a single-day “cliff crash” script, but an interleaved, phased pattern: after the Q2 earnings report (late July to early August), about 20% would be released first; then from August through October, another 7% is released in batches every 2 to 4 weeks; Q3 earnings would trigger about 28%; and the remaining shares would be fully unlocked on December 8, 2026. The 6.4 billion shares held by Musk himself are locked until June 12, 2027.

Phased share releases mean selling pressure will be spread over months rather than a one-time, flood-style dump.