Trump Tightens the Strait of Hormuz Again—Market Plot Changes

On July 13, Trump posted on “Truth Social,” announcing the restart of a naval blockade against Iran and imposing a 20% toll on all goods transiting the Strait of Hormuz—meaning that, based on current prices, a fully loaded supertanker would pay about $30 million. Brent crude surged 9.59% to $83.30, while WTI rose 9.42% to $78.14, marking the biggest single-day gain since May 2020.

Interestingly, this time the “safe-haven narrative” didn’t come through. According to the old script—geopolitical shock → money rushes into gold and Bitcoin—BTC and ETH instead fell by about 0.6%, SOL and DOGE dropped more than 2%, and liquidations across the entire market exceeded $100 million over 24 hours. The transmission chain is clear: strait cutoff → oil price spike → inflation expectations warm up again → the probability of a Fed rate hike in July soars to 46.5% → liquidity tightens, and high-beta crypto kneels first.

On the underlying assets, USO (the crude oil ETF) is following the oil price higher—while the oil-and-gas chain remains the smoothest windfall in the near term. On the crypto side, BTC/ETH in the short run will need to watch the CPI on Wednesday and the tone of Powell’s testimony. As for whether Trump’s 20% “toll” can actually be collected, Iran has already responded: “Too high—we’ll be fair.” This toll-booth showdown is just getting started.