Analyst: Although Bitcoin is under pressure from three factors, it still has the potential to rebound to $100,000 by year-end

According to Fortune, Bitcoin has been weakening since last October, and its price has fallen to about half of its all-time high of $126,000. Overall, the market remains in a deep bear market.

By synthesizing the views of multiple analysts, the factors currently weighing on Bitcoin’s price action mainly fall into three areas:

First, the four-year cycle pattern is affecting investors’ expectations. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that over the past ten years or so, Bitcoin has typically shown a rhythm of “three years of gains and one year of adjustments,” and that this pattern has profoundly influenced market trading psychology.

Therefore, as the end of 2025 approaches, some long-term holders who built positions at low levels have started choosing to lock in profits toward the end of the cycle. The selling by these early investors further intensifies the market’s selling pressure.

Second, inflation pressure caused by the macroeconomic environment. Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl noted that the rebound in U.S. inflation has cooled market expectations for rate cuts, and capital has begun flowing into traditional assets with higher yields and lower risk.

Also, based on historical experience and patterns, a rate-hike cycle usually suppresses crypto assets, while a low-interest-rate environment is more favorable for Bitcoin’s market performance.

Third, downside pressure is amplified by excessive market leverage. In bull markets, many investors use borrowing to magnify their Bitcoin exposure. Once the outlook weakens, derivatives open interest declines, and crypto treasury company models are also hit.

Taking Strategy as an example, the company previously bought large amounts of Bitcoin by issuing shares and debt, but since last October its share price has fallen by about 75%.

However, Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares, believes that Bitcoin could bottom out this summer. With a shift toward easier interest-rate policy and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, it could rebound to $100,000 by year-end.

Meanwhile, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, expects that the short-term bottom may be around $58,000, and that the subsequent price trend will depend on Federal Reserve policy, corporate buying behavior, and the progress of U.S. crypto regulatory legislation.

#比特币 #Bear market cycle