Yesterday, a friend from the community asked me: if you have about $300k in spare cash and want to invest long-term, should you buy US stocks or Bitcoin?

As for this year’s market conditions, I think buying US stocks would be a better choice.
Because Bitcoin is currently in a rather awkward position: it can’t match the upside potential of the AI industry chain, and it can’t match gold in terms of risk resistance.
So Bitcoin has been crazily drained of liquidity.
Right now there are two major narratives globally: one is the massive industrial transformation brought by AI, and the other is the geopolitical crisis driven by the widening global wealth gap.
And previously, Bitcoin’s main pitch was: resisting the over-issuance problem of centralized sovereign fiat currencies—but gold can do that too, and gold can also hedge risks at the same time.
The biggest problem now is that Bitcoin has no risk-resistance ability.
In practice, whenever risks arise from various causes, Bitcoin is always the first to drop—and the decline is also quite large.
When Bitcoin performs well, it’s often when currency is being over-issued and the economy is relatively stable—for example, from 2020 to 2021: the Federal Reserve flooded the market with liquidity, and it was aimed at the household sector. It looks like the economy was affected by the pandemic-related event, but actually unemployment at the time was temporary, because the liquidity injection didn’t cause consumption to fall off; inflation was pretty hot.
Also, there was no large-model AI back then, and the risky capital had poured money into crypto.
But now what? People realize that even if they疯狂買入 NVIDIA, it can still grow at terrifying profits and digest the P/E ratio. If that’s the case, why would I still go buy Bitcoin?
So both of Bitcoin’s two major narratives are being challenged. The key is that the overall crypto market is still one where supply isn’t controlled: new coins can be listed without any limits. In the end, as long as individuals can issue coins in just 5 minutes, they dilute their own liquidity.
Up to now, the biggest achievements in crypto are threefold: stablecoins, polymarket (prediction markets), and decentralized exchanges. All three have huge potential and are tied to real demand—but if you compare them to AI application scenarios, the gap is far.
Bitcoin isn’t without potential. No asset—gold, stocks, bonds, and so on—can replace Bitcoin. Bitcoin has its own position and role, but don’t forget: even the strongest commodity, gold, has historically fallen into a bear market lasting as long as 20 years.