At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. June CPI will be released. The market’s median expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of additional Fed rate hikes.

Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress. Early the next day at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.

The current macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets:
- The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
- Brent crude rose to above $85 at one point;
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to about 4.63%;
- The U.S. dollar index is near its intramonth highs;
- The market’s pricing probability for a 25 BP rate hike by late July has risen to about 43%.

This means that today’s CPI is not ordinary data—it will be released amid an oil-price shock and a warming of rate-hike expectations.

In addition, on July 13, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $239.2 million, and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $15.4 million. Institutional capital has not yet formed strong downside support. $CL $XAU