Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release June CPI, and the median market expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress, and early the next day at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.

The macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets right now:
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
Brent crude oil once rose above $85;
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to about 4.63%;
The U.S. Dollar Index is near its intramonth high;
The probability priced by the market for a 25 BP rate hike by late July has risen to about 43%.

That means today’s CPI is not ordinary data, but is being released amid an oil-price shock plus expectations of rate hikes heating up.

In addition, on July 13, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $239.2 million, while ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $15.4 million; institutional funds have not yet formed strong support.

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