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What is the magic weapon when Spain plays against France?
In the early hours of July 15, the USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup will host its first semifinal: the world No. 1 France vs the world No. 2 Spain.

France went 6-for-6, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2, and in the knockout stage they even kept a clean sheet in three consecutive matches. Combined with the fact that they haven’t played extra time, their fitness is plentiful—no matter how you look at it, France appears to be the strongest contender for the title.

But Spain is not weak either. In the past three years, they beat France in two separate semifinals. This time, facing an old rival again, their mindset is rock-solid—shocking.

Already found the winning rhythm
Judging by Spain’s performance earlier in this World Cup, they are not as forceful as France. In the opening of the group stage, they were held to a draw by newcomer Cape Verde, leaving their qualification prospects in doubt for a while. But thankfully, they gradually found their winning rhythm afterward, knocking out strong sides one after another to reach the semifinals.

Compared with France’s sharp attacking play, the key to Spain’s success is their solid defense. Before beating Belgium 2-1 in the Round of 8, Spain had gone six straight matches in this World Cup without conceding, creating the longest clean-sheet streak in World Cup history. This means that if opponents want to win, they must find a way to make Spain commit mistakes.

Of course, Spain’s run to the final four isn’t only about defense. As the birthplace of possession-based football, at this World Cup the Spaniards have taken it to the extreme. Head coach De la Fuente runs 4-3-3 possession-and-penetration football; the core is Rodri, as well as Pedri and Fabián. Once they control the ball, they look for moments when the opponent’s focus shifts in passing—then strike immediately.

Spain holds the edge in past meetings
There are plenty of high-level matchups in football, but two teams like France and Spain, going at it in semifinal after semifinal for three straight years, is absolutely unique. The two sides have met 38 times in history, with Spain ahead: 18 wins, 7 draws, 13 losses. In the two semifinal meetings across the past three years, Spain even left France fans with memories that will last.

In the 2024 European Championship semifinal, France scored first and seized the initiative. It looked like they were about to reach the final—then Lamine Yamal unleashed a brilliant world-class strike to turn the tide. After that, Olmo deflected in a goal, and Spain completed a 2-1 comeback, shattering France’s dream of reaching the final. In the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal, the two teams staged a nine-goal thriller, with the plot wildly swinging. Spain at one point led 5-1. In a desperate situation, France clawed back three straight goals, but ultimately lost 4-5, falling to the same opponent for the second consecutive year.

Winning those two semifinals gives Spain enough psychological advantage when they step onto the semifinal stage again.

Yamal’s performance is crucial
In this match, whether Spain can win will hinge importantly on Yamal. After all, in head-to-head duels with Mbappé, he has maintained an extremely high win rate.

As France’s number one star, Mbappé’s performance is beyond doubt—but it just so happened to be perfectly contained by the 18-year-old Yamal. The two had faced each other 10 times across league and cup competitions, and the team Yamal plays for won 8 of those matches, giving him an 80% win rate and creating a one-sided suppression of Mbappé. More directly, there’s another stat: they met 5 times in single-match knockout games, and Yamal won all 5—never losing once.

After Spain eliminated Belgium 2-1, when a reporter asked how Yamal assessed the matchup against France, the youngster said: “If there’s a team that should be afraid, it should be them. Because before, it was us who eliminated them. Next, two of the strongest teams in the world will face off—let’s see what happens.”

When Spain, armed with psychological advantage and defensive resilience, meets France, carrying revenge dreams and counterattack firepower—who will come out on top? The answer will be revealed soon.