Why do people say I think we’re not at the bear-market bottom yet? 🐻

First, I’ll briefly replicate the historical price action. I’m not saying it will definitely repeat like the last cycle. The last cycle had several major waves of drawdowns—this one is not necessarily guaranteed to have the same number of major drawdowns.

First, in terms of time cycle.

Last cycle’s top to the bottom was basically a full year—365 days.

This cycle’s peak to date is about 280 days, which means there’s still roughly 3 months of time.

Even if you count 90 days forward from the bottom of the last cycle, #BTC ’s price had already fallen by 50%.

So based on the current price and timeline, #BTC doing another halving-style “vertical drop” is also possible.

Second, in terms of pattern.

As you can see in the chart, BTC is still a distance away from the bottom. Stepping back, even if this is the bottom and it doesn’t fall further, it can’t go up either. The sideways consolidation here is at least one year as a baseline.

Finally, the halving-cycle theory.

The previous two times, about 500 days before the halving was when the bear-market bottom formed.

Currently, there are 639 days left until the halving, and there are about 139 days until the bear-market bottom 🐻.

Most of the data mutually supports each other, so I’m bearish.