The Iran–US conflict has fully escalated! $CL —can you still chase it?

Brothers, the US and Iran have completely ripped off the mask. Two oils surged nearly 10% in a single day.

News:

Trump restores the maritime blockade against Iran and charges a 20% fee for cargo through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran directly shuts down the strait. An Emirati oil tanker was hit by a missile, and the conflict has spread to mutual attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis.

On the other side: after WTI broke above 80, it quickly dropped back—heavy sell pressure is building overhead. Federal Reserve Governor Waller clearly said that if inflation stays uncomfortably hot, “the FOMC will consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.” The higher oil prices go, the stronger rate-hike expectations become—an all-around negative for risk assets.

Technical analysis:

Current price: 78.8; the intraday high briefly touched after 80, then pulled back

Resistance overhead: 80; if it breaks, look for 82-83

Support below: 77-77.8; if it breaks down, watch 75.5-76.0

Public view:

Geopolitical premium provides short-term support, but supply/pressure above 80 is clearly heavy + rate-hike expectations are heating up—chasing higher is extremely risky. Wait for a pullback; it’s more solid.

Trading strategy

A conservative plan: wait for the pullback to 77-77.5, then go long.

When the good news is at its strongest, chasing in is often exactly when the market is forming a phase top.
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