SpaceX’s close has already fallen below $140, and it’s just one step away from breaking its issue price. Seeing this level isn’t surprising at all.

Those who went through the post-listing unlock and sell-off after Circle’s IPO this time definitely won’t let SpaceX catch them at the top. The take-profit that needed to be taken has already been sold off; at most, they’ll keep a small portion of their position and wait to buy gradually after it breaks issue.
The real positive after SpaceX’s listing is that it was added to the Nasdaq 100 at the beginning of the month—before that, it was the best period for hype-driven price action.
Now that the good news has already been fully priced in, what comes next is real negative pressure: 4.56 billion shares will be unlocked after the 180-day lockup expires. The first wave of unlocking will occur on the second trading day after the Q2 earnings report is released, with 20% unlocked.
Unlocking will definitely create selling pressure. On one hand, SpaceX’s early employees and investors have share costs far below $135. Whether SpaceX’s stock price is currently below $200 or above $200 makes basically no difference to them—there’s a natural incentive to realize profits.
On the other hand, institutions and retail traders in the market will also trade ahead based on expectations of the unlock—sell the news—and the stock price will keep falling.
Unless SpaceX has bigger positive catalysts in the news cycle or a major improvement in fundamentals, it will be difficult to return to its all-time high in a short time.
My plan is to wait until SpaceX breaks issue price, when most people in the market turn bearish, and then look for opportunities to buy on dips. As the absolute top leader in the space sector, SpaceX is definitely worth holding for the long term.