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SemiAnalysis analyst: Changxin Memory’s HBM technology is 3 to 4 years behind leading companies

MarsBitNews
Mars Finance news. On July 14, SemiAnalysis analyst Ray Wang said in a CNBC interview yesterday that the demand for 2026 HBM is extremely strong—so strong that Samsung and SK hynix are continuously shifting wafer capacity to HBM and reducing investment in standard DRAM, even though standard DRAM currently offers higher price-to-profit margins. Ray Wang believes that in an HBM market where supply is in short demand, both Korean manufacturers will convert all of their HBM output into profit, so Samsung gaining HBM market share does not necessarily mean SK hynix’s interests are harmed. The limiting factor is wafer supply, not market demand. When talking about the soon-to-be-listed ChangXin Memory (CXMT), Ray Wang said that the company has already captured about 10% of the DRAM market share (calculated in bits). This is solid in a fast-growing market, but the company is about three years behind in process technology, and is 3 to 4 years behind in HBM. Ray Wang believes that most incremental supply will arrive in the second half of 2027, and that there will also be more supply in 2028, but he still believes that supply in 2028 will be insufficient, with only a slight easing compared with 2027.
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